The March Employment Situation Report (040309): The POR Economy, aka The POR Recession, March-es On
This one, I suspect, won’t be pretty.
In the run-up:
- ADP’s Employment Report Wednesday showed 742,000 nonfarm private jobs lost.
- Bloomberg’s sources predict about 660,000 jobs lost and an 8.5% unemployment rate.
Here is the actual intro from the Bureaus of Labor Statistics (bold is mine):
Nonfarm payroll employment continued to decline sharply in March (-663,000), and the unemployment rate rose from 8.1 to 8.5 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Since the recession began in December 2007, 5.1 million jobs have been lost, with almost two-thirds (3.3 million) of the decrease occurring in the last 5 months. In March, job losses were large and widespread across the major industry sectors.
Those “last 5 months” just so happen to be the same 5 months since the country learned who its next president would be.
The POR (Pelosi-Obama-Reid) Economy, now known as The POR Recession As Normal People Define It, courtesy of Nancy Pelosi, Barack Obama, and Harry Reid since June of last year, marches on.
Thanks, guys.
A closer look may come later.
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UPDATE: Since The POR Recession As Normal People Define It began in July (normal people look at recessions on a quarterly basis), over 4.3 million seasonally adjusted jobs have been lost:
UPDATE 2: Barack Obama’s Unprecedented Accomplishment.
Like I said the bloodbath continues. So when Obama said he would create of save 3 to 4 million jobs, I assume the 3.3 million is part of that number????
So what is Obama going to do when 4 million people graduate high school and college this May and June????? So basically he needs to create or save 7.3 million jobs not 3 or 4 million. It seems the rhetorical master in chief needs to fine tune (adjust) his message again. If the economy by some miracle recovers in spite of his stupidity, all the libs will crow they created 7 million jobs, you heard it from me first, I told you so…
Comment by dscott — April 3, 2009 @ 9:35 am
[...] future tax hikes, but the administration has no clue the 8.5% unemployment number may be related. Bizzyblog has a detailed look at these numbers. Possibly related posts: (automatically generated)You’ve gotta love the loony-tunes behind [...]
Pingback by Tea Party at Pelosi’s! Road Trip Anyone? « Temple of Mut — April 3, 2009 @ 12:32 pm
Curious that Obama still calls this the situation he ‘inherited.’ If this isn’t his economy by now, it never will be. He will be blaming bad employment in 2011 on GW Bush.
Comment by MAS1916 — April 3, 2009 @ 12:36 pm
I have been looking over the figures from the BLS site, consider this page showing the Civilian Labor Force #s since 1970 employment: http://www.bls.gov/web/cpseea1.pdf
In the last 40 years, the number of employed has never shrunk (retraced) lower than the previous two years. This time the number of employed has shrunk by 4 years! We have less people working now than in 2005! and the year is still young!!!
Looking back to 1940: http://www.bls.gov/cps/cpsaat1.pdf
The only comparible period with a long retracement was from 1945 to 1941 where the unemployment rate went from a low 1.9% to 3.9% when WWII was over.
Any idea that this is a normal recession with an equally normal expected recovery period is delusional. As I said before come May and June demographically we are adding as much as 4 million people to the Civilian Work Force number which means if the economy is not adding jobs by the time they graduate, the number of unemployed will jump from 13,161,000 to 17,000,000+. The low side estimate of 2 million would be if half of those who get their HS diploma and BS stay in school for a higher degree which might give a more realistic projection of 15,000,000 by June (9.7%). But given the current rate of job shedding I think 17,000,000 is still unfortunately probable, yielding 11% unemployment.
Comment by dscott — April 3, 2009 @ 1:42 pm