April 21, 2009

For Those Who Need to See It In Pictures ….

Filed under: Economy,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 1:52 pm

Here’s a graph:


Here’s a chart:


And finally, here’s a graphic appropriate to the circumstances for the math-challenged:


(Sources: Monthly Treasury Statements – March 2009 and March 2008; yesterday’s related post)


UPDATE: dscott asks and receives — I did this as part of the background work for the Pajamas Media column I just submitted, so it’s relatively light on the formatting (sources: Monthly Treasury Statements – September 2003, September 2001):


The quick answer to dscott’s question is that the receipt drops during the early 2000s were nothing compared to the past two months — not to mention what’s probably coming. May and June 2002′s combined 46.8% drop comes closest, but March and April 2008 are on track to be a combined 66.5%. Even under the most optimistic $280 billion collections scenario, the combined two-month total is still a combined 59%.

Gosh, I wonder why all this is happening?

UPDATE 2: The individual non-withheld numbers in the April 20 Daily Treasury Statement just released added up to $10.392 billion ($9.838 + $0.584). Ah, but that was a Monday, meaning it was two days’ worth of mail. The meaningful comparative would be Monday, April 21, 2008, when a combined 13.817 billion ($13.772 + $0.45), or 33% more, poured in.

In the next eight days, non-withheld receipts are going to have to average over $10 billion a day to reach my estimate of a $130 billion total at the end of the month. That is growing doubtful now, as is even reaching my estimate of $250 billion in total collections after refunds by the end of the month.