June 2, 2009

Prelim Estimate: May Treasury Receipts From Economic Activity Down 24% From Last Year

Filed under: Economy,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 7:06 am

Here’s the rundown of what is decipherable from the last Daily Treasury Statements of May 2009 and May 2008:

UStreasuryDailies052909v053008

The listed totals represent what the federal government received each month as a result of economic activity. Other items that don’t relate to economic activity end up adjusting these totals when Uncle Sam releases the Monthly Treasury Statement. Last year, it was the economic stimulus payments (about $47 billion in May 2008), which Treasury erroneously treated as negative receipts instead of as the outlays they really were. This year, it will “offset” payments of about $4 billion, which are being similarly mistreated.

As you can see, tax money coming in as a result of economic activity  is down a lot.

Next month’s percentage shortfall will more than likely be much worse. June is supposed to be a big month for corporate income tax receipts, as well as for individual income tax receipts from those who make estimated payments. Those receipts have generally been running 30% or more behind last year, and there’s no good reason to think that the trend won’t continue.

The Monthly Treasury Statement, aka the report that is becoming almost indecipherable, which also contains information about outlays and the deficit, but not as normal people would define them, will come out on June 10.

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