September 30, 2009

Econ Update: 2Q09 GDP at -0.7%; ADP Reports Big Job Losses Again

Filed under: Economy,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 1:39 pm

The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the economy contracted by 0.7% in the second quarter. That was an improvement from the -1.0% estimate a month ago.

Separately, ADP’s Employment came in with 254,000 seasonally adjusted jobs lost in the private sector during September (they say “from August to September”).

ADP says that the 254,000 jobs lost is the lowest number since July 2008. That would make sense, because July 2008 was the first full month of the POR (Pelosi-Obama-Reid) Economy, which as we know turned into the POR Recession/”RepressionAs Normal People Define It.

According to ADP’s full September press release (PDF), 788,000 private sector jobs were lost during the third quarter (357K in July, 277K in August, and the 254K above). That represents a 0.72% contraction in the private sector workforce.

An ABC report says that analysts are forecasting 180,000 seasonally adjusted jobs lost in the entire economy when the Bureau of Labor Statistics weighs in on Friday. Ignoring possible prior-month adjustments, that would mean 672,000 seasonally adjusted jobs lost during the third quarter.

I would suggest that those who screamed “recession!” when job losses were about 1/2 to 2/3 of what occurred during the first half of 2008 — especially in the second quarter of 2008, when the economy was growing — would be advised not to claim that the recession is over, or even that there is a legitimate “recovery,” when 50%-100% more people are still losing their jobs each month. But they probably won’t listen.


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