POR Economy/Obamanomics Graph of the Day (Revised)
Readers may be wondering why I haven’t said anything about the Dow reaching 10,000.
First, it’s less than halfway back to its all time peak of 14164 on October 9, 2007 from its March 9, 2009 trough of 6547.
Second, as the graph below shows, the price-dividend ratio of the Dow has fallen, and hasn’t gotten back up (Update — Instapundit originally put up a graph I referred to that he mislabeled (tardy and apologetic HT to an e-mailer) and I was not able to properly identify, so I’ve gone to one that I can; I should have recognized that the numbers in the Instapundit graph were too high to be “PEs” from the get-go, and apologize for that error; what’s impressive about all three graphs that have been presented here at some point is that they all support the narrative that follows):

This graph goes to 8/31/09, when the Dow was just below 9500, so the value is a bit higher now.
The markets began noticing that the GOP’s slate of candidates to succeed George W. Bush was particularly pathetic by the late summer/early fall of 2007. The slide began, and then halted a bit in the Spring of 2008 as the economy looked to be recovering from a rough first quarter.
But when Barack Obama, Nancy Pelosi, and Harry Reid began talking and taking down the economy in the summer of 2008, the decline returned, and accelerated. There was a slight flattening just before the presidential election, as the markets hoped that John McCain and Sarah Palin might somehow drag themselves over the finish line. Alas, it was not to be, and the plunge into the abyss continued for several months after the election.
We’re not much above where we were on Election Day in early October of last year. Big whoop.
I would not be surprised if the situation is even worse for small caps, which generally have smaller dividend yields to begin with. A rent-seeking, crony capitalism economy tends to favor big companies over small ones.
Those are my added notes about the market’s anticipations and reactions. I just wanted to make it clear why we are where we are.
The duration of the decline illustrated above, and of the 53.8% decline in the Dow from its peak, and of the frightening increase in unemployment that appears destined to linger for quite a while, regardless of whether the equity markets recover, represents what frequent BizzyBlog commenter JoeC so accurately pegged and accurately predicted on October 3, 2007 as “the Democrat effect”:
With the prospects of Democrats in power, the smart money (i.e. businesses and capital) is preparing a year ahead of time for the coming punishment. At minimum the tiny tax rate cuts of 2001 and 2003 that saved the US from the perfect storm of insults to the economy need to be made permanent. REAL tax relief is needed, but that ain’t gonna happen when the economic Grim Reapers are in charge.
I would also add that October 2007 marked the beginning of the first full budget year under the legislative control of the majority-Democrat Congress elected in November of 2006. After the GOP actually contained spending in its last year of control, spending went out of control from October 2007 forward. The concomitant market slide is no coincidence.
The working definition of “the Democrat effect” is “the rational response by firms to prepare for the inevitable insult to the economy from unsurmountable regulation, litigation, and taxation to come (and which is now largely here) – which started on election night ‘06.” It took the markets, entrepreneurs, businesspeople, and investors a while to believe that the Democrat-controlled Congress and now the Obama administration aren’t merely indifferent to free-market capitalism and the prosperity it brings. It is hostile to it. Now they know.
The following characterization is sadly, objectively true.
I guess Rush, who rarely has guests,
Let’s see. A Big 4 independent public accounting firm vs. the Democratic Party’s go-to health care economics guy. Who has more presumptive credibility?


I suppose President Obama is still running around telling everyone who will listen, along with anyone else who won’t, that “If you like your doctors and medical providers, you can keep them.”








