Lucid Links (112309, Morning)
Uncle Sam Cash Crunch update (through the third Thursday in November, 2009 and 2008):
Consider as well the estimated combined total collections for October and November, which I’m generously and probably overoptimistically pegging at $280 billion this year vs. $310 billion last year. I’m estimating that November 2009 will come in the same as last year’s $144.8 billion, because November 2009 has five high-collection Mondays, while November 2008 had four.
I know that October and November are relatively light collections months, but $280 billion? Based on last year’s spending levels through November plus about 3% (which is way lower than the increase will really be), that amount pays for defense, HHS, the interest on the national debt and …. absolutely …. nothing …. else.
And even that is a bit padded because of the number of Mondays situation noted above. December 2009 has four Mondays, while December 2008 had five, so December ‘09 collections will probably badly trail December ‘08.
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Patrick Poole, on a Columbus arson — “While arson investigators continue to look into the fire that has temporarily displaced Masjid Salama (mosque), the leaders are waiting to see whether local officials and the media in Ohio — who have thus far ignored the larger controversy surrounding the fire — will finally recognize the larger battle between Muslim moderates and extremists happening in the Columbus Somali community.”
Recalling the attendance of Ohio Governor Ted Strickland at a CAIR banquet in June 2007 (here, here, and here), I would add state officials to Patrick’s list of those needing a wake-up.
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Instapundit is correct that the news concerning the upholding of Lynne Stewart’s conviction and the order that she be immediately jailed deserved more notice, though Michelle Misses-Nothing Malkin caught it — The New York Times carried its Tuesday and Friday coverage on Pages A31 and A32, respectively. At least it had decent headlines for once (”Conviction of Sheik’s Lawyer for Assisting Terrorism Is Upheld”; “Radical Lawyer Convicted of Aiding Terrorist Is Jailed”).
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Jonah Goldberg notes the gotcha of the month, which strikes comedy gold:
In its (Slate’s) reader forum, The Fray, one supposed Palinophobe took dead aim at the former Alaska governor’s writing chops, excerpting the following sentence from her book:
“The apartment was small, with slanting floors and irregular heat and a buzzer downstairs that didn’t work, so that visitors had to call ahead from a pay phone at the corner gas station, where a black Doberman the size of a wolf paced through the night in vigilant patrol, its jaws clamped around an empty beer bottle.”
Other readers pounced like wolf-sized Dobermans on an intruder. One guffawed, “That sentence by Sarah Palin could be entered into the annual Bulwer-Lytton bad writing contest. It could have a chance at winning a (sic) honorable mention, at any rate.”
But soon, the original contributor confessed: “I probably should have mentioned that the sentence quoted above was not written by Sarah Palin. It’s taken from the first paragraph of ‘Dreams From My Father,’ written by Barack Obama.”
Somebody had better let either Obama, or likely “Dreams” ghostwriter Bill Ayers, that they need to brush up on their writing chops.
Tangentially to your post on lack luster tax receipts, the Newspaper industry continues to die on the vine. http://newsosaur.blogspot.com/2009/11/carnage-continued-in-q3-newspaper-sales.html While documenting the losses at the newspapers this article mentions something that should make everyone question the GDP #s put out by the government.
The only good news in the unremittingly ugly figures reported last week is that the rate of decay in the third quarter was “only” 28.95%, as compared with the all-time record sales plunge of 30.15% in the prior period. Here are the details of the third-quarter debacle:
Classified advertising led the declines, falling 37.9% from the comparable period in 2008 to $1.47 billion.
:: For the first time since 1995, national advertising sales dropped to less than $1 billion. They were $956 million, or 29.8% lower than a year ago.
:: Retail sales slid a bit less than 24% to just under $3.4 billion. They haven’t been this low since the first quarter of 1987, when they were $3.3 billion. Adjusting for inflation, the 1987 performance would be equivalent to $6.3 billion today, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Among the classified categories, automotive and real estate advertising, two long-time pillars of the newspaper advertising model, each was down by 43% in the third quarter, compounding drastic declines in recent years.
Auto sales, which nearly hit $1 billion in the third quarter two years ago, were $321 million in the same period in 2009. Realty advertising, which topped $1 billion as recently as two years ago, declined to $358.6 million in the third quarter. It will take a long time for either vertical to return to its former strength, assuming they ever will.
Recruitment advertising, which surpassed $2 billion per quarter at the peak of the Internet bubble in 2000, all but dried up in the third quarter of this year, falling nearly 64.7% to a mere $175 million. Employment advertising is not simply at its lowest point in history, it is all but gone.
With major categories like employment, auto and real estate reduced to being shadows of their former selves, it is hard to see how anyone can say the worst is over.
What Newsosaur is essentially saying here is the economy by implication shrank, not grew last quarter compared to previous years. When is growth not growth? Is a bounce from the second derivative growth?
Comment by dscott — November 23, 2009 @ 9:40 am
#1, your comment causes me to stumble into a bit of an insight, which is this: Yes, you are chronicling the decline of the news business, and much of it is self-inflicted, and it is happening faster than it otherwise would have because of relentless bias, PC infections, etc.
But what is also going on is Schumpeter’s creative destruction, just as autos destroyed blacksmiths and PCs destroyed minicomputers, but with two differences:
- the replacements are often free (e.g., Craigslist), meaning they may or not be viable.
- putting the first point aside, the economic environment P-O-R have created is destroying/largely has destroyed the incentive to come up with the viable and thriving new businesses that would replace the decaying, ossified old ones as noted in this Saturday post based on C. Edmund Wright’s American Thinker piece.
So the decay continues, and the viable-business replacements are largely on hold, or worse. We are in seriously deep doo-doo.
Comment by TBlumer — November 23, 2009 @ 9:58 am
Yes, I read Wright’s article and it echos many things I have said as well. Which leads me to share one of those amusing emails I got some months ago I got from a friend about the state of the investing climate in this country.
Dinner with Obama, a parable:
Once upon a time, I was invited to the White House for a private dinner with the President. I am a respected businessman, with a factory that produces memory chips for computers and portable electronics. There was some talk that my industry was being scrutinized by the administration, but I paid it no mind. I live in a free country. There’s nothing that the government can do to me if I’ve broken no laws. My wealth was earned honestly, and an invitation to dinner with an American President is an honor.
I checked my coat, was greeted by the Chief of Staff, and joined the President in a yellow dining room. We sat across from each other at a table draped in white linen. The Great Seal was embossed on the china. Uniformed staff served our dinner.
The meal was served, and I was startled when my waiter suddenly reached out, plucked a dinner roll off my plate, and began nibbling it as he walked back to the kitchen.
“Sorry about that,” said the President. “Andrew is very hungry.”
“I don’t appreciate…” I began, but as I looked into the calm brown eyes across from me, I felt immediately guilty and petty. It was just a dinner roll. “Of course,” I concluded, and reached for my glass. Before I could, however, another waiter reached forward, took the glass away and swallowed the wine in a single gulp.
“And his brother Eric is very thirsty.” said the President.
I didn’t say anything. The President is testing my compassion, I thought. I will play along. I don’t want to seem unkind.
My plate was whisked away before I had tasted a bite. “Eric’s children are also quite hungry.”
With a lurch, I crashed to the floor. My chair had been pulled out from under me. I stood, brushing myself off angrily, and watched as it was carried from the room. “And their grandmother can’t stand for long.”
I excused myself, smiling outwardly, but inside feeling like a fool.
Obviously I had been invited to the White House to be sport for some game. I reached for my coat, to find that it had been taken. I turned back to the President. “Their grandfather doesn’t like the cold.”
I wanted to shout – that was my coat! But again, I looked at the placid smiling face of my host and decided I was being a poor sport. I spread my hands helplessly and chuckled. Then I felt my hip pocket and realized my wallet was gone. I excused myself and walked to a phone on an elegant side table. I learned shortly that my credit cards had been maxed out, my bank accounts emptied, my retirement and equity portfolios had vanished, and my wife had been thrown out of our home. Apparently, the waiters and their families were moving in.
The President hadn’t moved or spoken as I learned all this, but finally I lowered the phone into its cradle and turned to face him.
“Andrew’s whole family has made bad financial decisions. They haven’t planned for retirement, and they need a house. They recently defaulted on a subprime mortgage. I told them they could have your home. They need it more than you do.”
My hands were shaking. I felt faint. I stumbled back to the table and knelt on the floor. The President cheerfully cut his meat, ate his steak and drank his wine. I lowered my eyes and stared at the small grey circles on the tablecloth that were water drops.
“By the way,” He added, “I have just signed an Executive Order nationalizing your factories. I’m firing you as head of your business. I’ll be operating the firm now for the benefit of all mankind. There’s a whole bunch of Erics and Andrews out there and they can’t come to you for jobs groveling like beggars.”
I looked up. The President dropped his spoon into the empty ramekin which had been his creme brulee. He drained the last drops of his wine. As the table was cleared, he lit a cigarette and leaned back in his chair. He stared at me. I clung to the edge of the table as if were a ledge and I were a man hanging over an abyss. I thought of the years behind me, of the life I had lived. The life I had earned with a lifetime of work, risk and struggle. Why was I punished? How had I allowed it to be taken? What game had I played and lost? I looked across the table and noticed with some surprise that there was no game board between us.
What had I done wrong?
As if answering the unspoken thought, the President suddenly cocked his head, locked his empty eyes to mine, and bared a million teeth, chuckling wryly as he folded his hands.
“You should have stopped me at the dinner roll,” he said.
Comment by dscott — November 23, 2009 @ 10:27 am
Unbelievable! Today, the lying Gibbs is claiming the health care debate is driven by two things 1. the tax cut (Bush) and 2. the unfunded prescription drug benefit. This lying sack of #$%#$% has the audacity to bold faced lie on TV!!!! The Bush tax cut brought in trillions of extra dollars since 2003. this is nothing more than rationalizing a tax increase by allowing the tax cut to expire.
Rx benefit was paid for, BY SENIORS so says the SS Trust fund report…for years in their annual report. It is the ONLY part of the Medicare program that is NOT in financial trouble.
I am fed up with the bold faced lying coming out of this administration.
Comment by dscott — November 23, 2009 @ 1:48 pm
#4, that is a uniquely pathetic lie that calls for a post, along with a gazillion other offenses to one’s basic sensibilities. Though IIRC presc drugs still has a LT actuarial liability, despite the better than expected early-year results. But it’s nothing like Medicare’s or SocSec’s.
Comment by TBlumer — November 23, 2009 @ 5:11 pm