Zero Hedge wonders if the government is fudging the unemployment numbers.
Well, I guess it depends on what you mean by “fudge.” I don’t think any definitions have changed, and I doubt that there’s any data manipulation going on at the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
But …. for this to happen, a lot of people collecting unemployment would need to tell BLS that they not only aren’t working, but that they have dropped out of the workforce. The 376,000 increase in “marginally attached” workers doesn’t solve ZH’s puzzling question, which is why it seems that 30% or so more people are collecting unemployment benefits than you would expect from BLS’s unemployment stats.
Why would this be the case? Perhaps (emphasis perhaps) there are a lot of people who retired for Social Security benefit collection purposes who are also collecting extended unemployment benefits. It looks like you can do that without a reduction or “offset” against Social Security benefits in 46 states. It also looks like doing so wouldn’t cause the earnings penalty to kick in if unemployment benefits collected would exceed the Social Security earnings penalty thresholds, because these benefits aren’t income from work.
I’m not totally there with a conclusion, and there are probably a lot of personal considerations in the mix, but I think a pretty good case can be made that a lot of those who are doing this are double-dipping the social welfare system, which in the big picture is supposed to be a safety net, not an ongoing lifestyle enabler. This may be the largest element of the discrepancy ZH has exposed.
So how much of the money involved in the seemingly endless extensions of unemployment benefits is going to people who are also collecting (in these cases, usually tax-free) Social Security benefits?
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To the previous item, add the possibility that a lot of people collecting Social Security disability payments might also be collecting extended unemployment benefits. Disability apps are also way up, and I would think that despite a clogged system, the number of those collecting disability benefits is also way up.
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Speaking of unemployment, here is how ADP’s Employment report came in just now:
Nonfarm private employment decreased 84,000 from November to December 2009 on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the ADP National Employment Report®. The estimated change of employment from October to November was revised by 24,000, from a decline of 169,000 to a decline of 145,000.
The decline in December was the smallest since March of 2008. Employment losses are now rapidly diminishing and, if recent trends continue, private employment will begin rising within the next few months.
This would be good. As the Kudlow excerpt at my first Lucid Link item yesterday showed, the fact that it may finally be happening has nothing to do with any Obama administration initiatives. It should have and would have happened much sooner if tax cuts instead of bogus stimulus had been the remedy chosen.
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Awwww, poor babies — The National Republican Congressional Committee isn’t flush with cash. I wonder why?
Here’s a suggestion for those who really want to make a difference: Don’t give NRCC or any similar national or statewide GOP organization a dime. Instead, contribute directly to candidates whose sensible conservatism you are sure of, and to Tea Party and think tank PACs that will force candidates to say where they stand on key issues before dispensing campaign cash.
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A repeat BlogNetNews performance — with repeat gratitude to those thanked a week ago.
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Did you know that high school science labs are “white”? Neither did I, but Berkeley (CA) High School has figured that out, and wants “to eliminate before- and after-school science labs.”
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Great point by Ron Hart at the Panama City News Herald:
After recovering from the last downturn in our economy (under the peanut version of Obama — Jimmy Carter), Southwest Airlines, FedEx, Microsoft, Apple, Genentech, Charles Schwab, Oracle and Home Depot were founded by optimistic entrepreneurs. They made billions for themselves, made millionaires out of more than 100,000 workers, employed millions of people and paid billions of dollars in taxes. I do not see that happening now with Obama’s policies.
Not to the same extent. Even setting aside the uncertainty overhang that began with the POR (Pelosi-Obama-Reid) Economy a year and a half ago, there’s Sarbanes Oxley, which works to make selling out to an existing bigger company a better alternative than going public. And even if companies do go public, they’re less likely to do so in the US than they were before SOX came along.
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Columbus, Ohio passed a 25% income tax increase last year, increasing the rate from 2.0% to 2.5% (using the proper language of taxation, the new rate is 25% higher than the old one). In doing so, they’re extracting even more money from voteless suburbanites who work in the city and happen to number 50% of those who pay the tax.
But the city still won’t spend money on the basics:
Residential streets to miss out
City has enough money to repave only some of main, heavily used roads; neighborhoods unhappy
But Mayor Coleman can’t wait to spend money to fund art in public buildings. That may be an idea worthy of debate, Mayor, but only when you know the road situation is under control, which it obviously isn’t.
John Gray, in a letter to the Cbus Dispatch, has a wry suggestion in his title: “Maybe city can pave roads with canvas.” From his text: “We should start with Mayor Michael B. Coleman’s office and decorate his chair by putting a new mayor in it.”