October 28, 2010

Lickety-Split Links (102810, Morning)

Filed under: Lucid Links — Tom @ 9:14 am

New York State “may be a big part of the Republican wave.”

What’s reported there makes this “write it down” prediction from five weeks ago (“If Jay Townsend loses to Chuckie Schumer, it will be by less than 10 points. That’s right, I said ‘if.’”) looks more plausible.

It will become even more plausible if the Jay Townsend campaign does something with this speech by Chuck Schumer in 2007:

[T]he violence in Anbar has gone down despite the Surge,
not because of the Surge. The inability of American soldiers to protect these tribes
from al Qaeda said to these tribes, “We have to fight al Qaeda ourselves.”

Schumer was so proud of what he said that, as Sweetness & Light noted at the time (HT Hot Air), he had the italicized words above — a direct slur of American soldiers — deleted from the transcript of the speech he posted at his Senate web site and replaced with “The lack of protection for these tribes.”

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From the “Cash Out While You Can” Dept.

The overwhelming volume of sell transactions relative to buy transactions by company insiders over the last six months in key leading sectors of the market is the worst Alan Newman, editor of the Crosscurrents newsletter, has ever seen since he began tracking the data.

… (It’s) “as awful as we have ever seen since we began doing this exercise years ago,” said Newman, who was ahead on such trends as the dangers of high-frequency trading and ETFs before the ‘Flash Crash’. “Clearly, insiders are seeing great value only in cash. Their actions speak volumes for the veracity for the current rally.”

Related: Reacting to this report from Bloomberg (“Fed Asks Dealers to Estimate Size, Impact of Debt Purchases”), Zero Hedge contends that “the only ones left trading the market are the Fed and the PDs (Primary Dealers, such as Goldman Sachs), passing hot potatoes to each other, and the HFTs (High Frequency Traders), churning the (expletive) out of everything else to pretend someone is still trading,” and that “a paralyzed Fed” is having to ask the PDs how much additional “quantitative easing” is appropriate.

Completely reckless fiscal policy since the inception of the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) and Hank Paulson’s figurative “gun to the head” episode two years ago has certainly severely weakened the Fed, which if it isn’t “paralyzed,” is certainly looking desperate.

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Indoctrination and (possibly illegal) electioneering, via Andrew Marlow at BigGov: “(Incumbent California Senator Barbara) Boxer Campaign Apologizes for Getting Caught Soliciting Teachers to Recruit Student Volunteers.”

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Via Dan Riehl, Harry Reid “Milks” the System for a constituent. As a result, he claims “credit” for “saving” jobs, but destroys more. Read the whole thing.

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Thanks for (doing) nothing, guys (/sarc) — Showing that “It’s the Uncertainty, Stupid” is spreading to everyone (“Employers in U.S. Start Bracing for Higher Tax Withholding”) —

Lawmakers won’t start debating whether to extend the (federal income tax) cuts, which expire Dec. 31, until after the Nov. 2 elections. Because it takes weeks to prepare withholding schedules, the Internal Revenue Service will probably have to assume the cuts will expire and direct employers to increase payroll deductions starting Jan. 1, experts say.

Pelosi and Reid having Congress leave town before the elections without settling this is having costly, real-world consequences.

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2 Comments

  1. They are selling to get the profits (and therefore the taxes) in before their capital gains rate goes from 15% (now) to >30% (I think it is something in the range of 38%) on Jan 2011. It is classic rate goes up revenue goes down behavior. But it will provide a jump in collections prior to the end of the year–which means this year’s budget will look ALOT better than next years!!

    Comment by Scott — October 28, 2010 @ 10:15 am

  2. #1, great point, which is actually working against QE, and causing QE to be more aggressive to keep the market propped up.

    As to the budget issue, we’re already in Fiscal 2011, but the activity cited will cause the Oct. – Dec. quarter to be stronger than it would otherwise have been, and the remaining three quarters in fiscal 2011 to be weaker.

    Comment by TBlumer — October 28, 2010 @ 10:22 am

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