January 5, 2011

ADP and ISM Reports (Finally) Point to Decent Expansion; Employment Readings Diverge

Filed under: Economy,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 10:35 am

The Institute for Supply Management’s two primary reports came in strong this week:

  • Monday’s Manufacturing Index was 57.0%, up from 56.6% in December, the 17th month in a row with an expansionary number above 50%.
  • Today’s Non Manufacturing Index leaped to 57.1% from 55.0% in December.

The weighted average of the two indices is the highest it has been in a very long time.

ADP’s employment report shows 297,000 private-sector jobs added in December. That’s probably the highest number in about 3-1/2 years, if not longer, and was about triple expectations.

Oddly, the Employment components of the two ISM indices are heading in the opposite direction from ADP’s clearly cheerful and hopefully correct finding. While Manufacturing’s Employment reading of 55.7% remained strong, it was lower than November’s 57.5%. The Employment component in the far more important Non Manufacturing Index (80%-plus of the economy) dropped to a barely expanding 50.5% from 52.7%. That’s clearly not in sync with ADP.

If the ADP number comes close to holding up in Friday’s Employment Situation Report, all I can say is: What a difference the prospect of a Republican House placing some limits on the Obama administration makes. Don’t let us down, guys and gals.

‘Worst. Recession. Jobs. Recovery. Ever.’

Filed under: Economy,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 8:32 am

Proven graphically at Political Calculations.

The question I asked a year ago still applies: “Rebound? What Rebound?

Lickety-Split Links (010511, Morning)

Filed under: Lucid Links — Tom @ 7:38 am

I like the idea of a “Repeal Amendment” to the Constitution:

Rep. Rob Bishop, R-Utah, has introduced into Congress a very simple and clear amendment to the U.S. Constitution. Called the Repeal Amendment, it reads:

“Any provision of law or regulation of the United States may be repealed by the several states, and such repeal shall be effective when the legislatures of two-thirds of the several states approve resolutions for this purpose that particularly describe the same provision or provisions of law or regulation to be repealed.”

In short, the legislatures of two-thirds of the states can repeal any federal law or regulation.

I’d consider lowering the threshold to 60%, and add a two-year restraining order on enforcing a law or reg once 50% of the state legislatures vote for repeal. The law or reg would go back into place if the 60% threshold isn’t reached in that two-year time frame.

Randy Barnett notes that leftists fiercely oppose it, and correctly observes that their opposition is a sign that he’s on to something.

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Department of “Just-Us Democrats and Leftists” Updates:

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While on the subject of loony-left appointees, I’d say that any one of the Duke “Group of 88″ professors who preemptively judged the school’s lacrosse players guilty and have never apologized, as is the case with Obama appointee Cathy Davidson at the National Council on the Humanities, has DQ’d themselves from future federal service. Sans apology, nothing Davidson has to say deserves to carry any weight.

Bigger picture, Davidson ridicules American exceptionalism and instead subscribes to the historically laughable notion that the “colonialist” America and other nations only got rich by exploiting poor nations.

If Duke wants to pay her to spout this garbage in the classroom, that’s between the university, its brainwashed students, and ignorant parents who are at least partially sending their money down the toilet. Taxpayers? No way. If she stays, Congress should cut off the Endowment’s funding until she leaves.

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Zero Hedge“GM Continues To Stuff Dealers With Its Cars” — Dealer inventories dropped 25,000 in December, but ended the year 33% higher than last December (511,000 vs. 385,000).

That’s the case, even though GM’s sales for the year per the Wall Street Journal’s detailed report were, contrary to its press release, only up by 7.2%. If GM dealers somehow beat 2010′s first quarter by 10%, they still have a supply of 88 days’ sales on hand. If they just match last year, it’s 97.

I should remind readers that yours truly was as far as I can tell the first to make the over-stuffing assertion just before GM’s IPO.

Positivity: Christmas Miracle — Snowmobiler rescued from 80-feet deep mine shaft

Filed under: Positivity — Tom @ 5:57 am

From Creston, British Columbia:

Wednesday, December 29th, 2010

A 53-year-old man can count his lucky stars or may want to think of this as his Christmas Miracle after surviving an 80-feet plunge into a mine shaft while snowmobiling with friends.

The Creston man suffered only a broken wrist and a broken ankle.

Police and Nelson search and rescue were called to the scene of the accident on Tuesday. The distress call came from snowmobilers who were with him and observed the man go into the deep hole.

“Creston RCMP and Nelson Search and Rescue attended an area 30 km up the Bayonne Creek Forest Service Rd, which is between Creston and Salmo off of Highway #3. It is believed that the mine shaft opening was covered by snow at the time of the fall,” said Cpl. Dan Moskaluk.

“The search and rescue helicopter was used to remove the man once he was out of the mine shaft. He was flown to Creston Valley Hospital and as of yesterday he was in stable condition, suffering from a broken ankle and wrist.”

Go here for the rest of the story.