May 13, 2011

List of Unsupportable Assertions in the Associated Press’s Three Reports on the Latest AP-GfK Poll

GfKpollSamplesJanMarMay2011The latest AP-GfK poll conducted on May 5-9 and released on May 11 is the third of three poll whose partisan weightings have changed as indicated on the right.

In my next Pajamas Media column which will appear shortly, I write that “Because the polls are not representative, and because they have become successively less representative in their last three efforts, at least two dozen assertions made in the three AP reports … are not supported by the underlying poll results.”

What follows is a less than complete list of unsupportable assertions (the three reports involved have been saved at my web host for future reference, fair use and discussion purposes):

May 11, 7:16 a.m., Liz Sidoti and Jennifer Agiesta; “AP-GfK poll: Obama approval hits 60 percent”

“President Barack Obama’s approval rating has hit its highest point in two years – 60 percent – and more than half of Americans now say he deserves to be re-elected …”

“… the president’s standing improved not just on foreign policy but also on the economy …”

“Nearly three-fourths (of Americans) – 73 percent – also now say they are confident that Obama can effectively handle terrorist threats.”

“Despite a sluggish recovery from the Great Recession, 52 percent of Americans now approve of Obama’s stewardship of the economy, giving him his best rating on that issue since the early days of his presidency …”

“Also, more Americans – 45 percent, up from 35 percent in March – say the country is headed in the right direction.”

“Obama’s overall political boost comes at an important time. He is embarking on his re-election campaign and is in the early days of a debate with Republicans who control the House over raising the country’s debt limit. But it’s unclear how long Obama’s strengthened standing will last in the aftermath of bin Laden’s death.”

“Overall, Obama’s approval rating is up slightly from 53 percent in March and a 47 percent low point following last fall’s midterm congressional elections …”

“Also, 53 percent now say he deserves to be re-elected; 43 percent say he should be fired …”

Sixty-nine percent say Obama will keep America safe, up from 61 percent in March; 65 percent call him a ‘strong leader,’ up from 57 percent.”

“Sixty-three percent say Obama cares about people like them; 63 percent also say that he understands the problems of ordinary Americans.”

“Sixty-three percent view Obama favorably, up from 59 percent in March.”

“Nearly two-thirds of people – 61 percent – disapprove of his handling on gas prices, even though there’s little a president can do about them.”

“Less than half give him positive marks on dealing with the federal budget deficit or taxes, two big upcoming issues.”

******

May 11, 8:31 a.m., and Jennifer Agiesta; “AP-GfK Poll: Bin Laden killing was justified”

“More Americans – 45 percent, up from 35 percent in March – say the country is headed in the right direction. Still, about half – 52 percent – say things are heading the wrong way, reflecting the effect of more polarizing domestic issues such as the economy, federal budget deficit and health care overhaul.”

“Despite a sluggish recovery from the Great Recession, 52 percent of Americans now approve of Obama’s stewardship of the economy, giving him his best rating on that issue since the early days of his presidency.”

“Overall, Obama’s approval rating is up to 60 percent from 53 percent in March and the 47 percent low point following last fall’s congressional elections.”

“The AP-GfK results were striking in that they found Obama with a higher approval rating than other recent polls that generally said he was in the low 50s.”

“On the other hand, the poll showed Americans are a little less worried about becoming victims of terrorism themselves. Thirty-three percent said they often or sometimes worry, down slightly from 37 percent last November and 40 percent in January 2010. Thirty-three percent said they are very or somewhat worried that they or a member of their family might become victims of a terrorist attack, about on par with 35 percent who said so two years ago.”

“But the new poll found a marked increase in public approval of Obama’s handling of the war. Sixty-five percent said they approve, compared with 55 percent in an AP-GfK survey in late March and 48 percent last November.”

“On the broader question of Obama’s handling of terrorism, 72 percent approved, compared to 61 percent in March. His gains were even more dramatic among those who said they strongly approve: 40 percent, compared to 25 percent in March.”

******

May 12, 10:00 a.m., Jim Kuhnhenn; “AP-GfK poll: Americans more upbeat about economy”

“Americans are growing more optimistic about the U.S. economy, a sentiment that is benefiting President Barack Obama despite public disenchantment with his handling of rising gasoline prices and swollen government budget deficits.”

“An Associated Press-GfK poll shows that more than 2 out of 5 people believe the U.S. economy will get better, while a third think it will stay the same and nearly a fourth think it will get worse, a rebound from last month’s more pessimistic attitude.”

“And, for the first time since the 100-day mark of his presidency, slightly more than half approve of Obama’s stewardship of the economy.”

“The results of the AP-GfK poll stood out because other surveys taken after bin Laden’s death, while showing a spike in support for the president, continued to indicate dissatisfaction by a majority for his handling of the economy.”

“Forty-five percent of those polled in the AP-GfK survey said the country was now moving in the right direction, an increase of 10 percentage points from five weeks ago.”

“About 1 in 5 thought the economy got better during the past month; an equal number thought it got worse.”

Stay tuned.

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UPDATE, May 18: The related May 16 PJM column is here (mirrored here at BizzyBlog). The May 16 BizzyBlog tease, which include’s GfK’s defensive video, is here.

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1 Comment

  1. [...] not representative, and because they have become successively less so in their last three efforts, at least two dozen assertions made in the three AP reports cited above have no [...]

    Pingback by BizzyBlog — May 18, 2011 @ 8:38 am

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