Did AARP ‘Pivot’ on Social Security to Stop Membership Bleeding?

Here are key paragraphs from Laura Meckler’s Wall Street Journal’s report on AARP’s “pivot” (read: apparent change of heart) on Social Security reform:

AARP, the powerful lobbying group for older Americans, is dropping its longstanding opposition to cutting Social Security benefits, a move that could rock Washington’s debate over how to revamp the nation’s entitlement programs.

The decision, which AARP hasn’t discussed publicly, came after a wrenching debate inside the organization. In 2005, the last time Social Security was debated, AARP led the effort to kill President George W. Bush’s plan for partial privatization. AARP now has concluded that change is inevitable, and it wants to be at the table to try to minimize the pain.

“The ship was sailing. I wanted to be at the wheel when that happens,” said John Rother, AARP’s long-time policy chief and a prime mover behind its change of heart.

The shift, which has been vetted by AARP’s board and is now the group’s stance, could have a dramatic effect on the debate surrounding the future of the federal safety net, from pensions to health care, given the group’s immense clout.

“If they come around and say they’re ready to do something, it will be like the Arctic icecap cracking,” said former Sen. Alan Simpson, co-chairman of a White House commission on the deficit. He has frequently assailed the group as a barrier to progress.

At the same time, AARP runs the risk of alienating both its liberal allies, who have vowed to fight any benefit cuts, and its 37 million members, many of whom are deeply opposed to such a move.

I’m not in a forgiving mood. What AARP did to derail rational discussion of Social Security reform in 2005 was reprehensible and, as the organization is now effectively admitting, wrong. Finally coming around after letting the demographic time bomb’s fuse nearly run out during the intervening six years is hardly impressive. I also suspect that whatever AARP believes is “reform” has nothing to do with giving Americans some degree of control over how their money is invested, and has nothing to do with giving them assets they can pass on to their heirs if they don’t survive to retirement. And of course, AARP supported the passage of Obamacare in a case of what was correctly seen as a case of brazen self-interest.

Meckler’s reference to “many” AARP members who would oppose any reform is apt. How “many”? I suspect AARP has polled this internally, and has found that fierce opponents of Social Security reform are in a distinct minority.

Which gets to the membership question I brought up in the post’s title.

Meckler’s reference to “37 million members” caught my eye. That seemed lower than the numbers I’ve seen concerning AARP membership rolls — and it is:

• At Wikipedia’s AARP entry — “AARP claims over 40 million members, making it one of the largest membership organizations in the United States.”
• The link to “Government Watch” at this AARP “Advocacy” page says “AARP’s 40 million members hold their elected officials accountable for their votes on issues of great importance to older Americans.”
• New York Times; October 3, 2009 (“A Heated Debate Is Dividing Generations in AARP”) — “Its 40 million members are split about evenly between those who have access to Medicare, the federal government’s health program for the elderly, and those who are too young to be eligible for such benefits.”
• A current Google News search on [AARP "40 million members] (typed exactly as indicated between quotes) returns four items from the past 30 days, including items predating AARP’s “pivot” from US News and New Hampshire Public Radio.
• A Google News Archive search on the same string but also sorting by date and omitting any items containing the word “nearly” returns 98 items.

But now, Laura Meckler’s reported number is at least 7-1/2% (3 million divided by 40 million) lower than what has been claimed by AARP itself and generally used in media coverage.

In August 2009 (“Seniors Voting with their Feet”), Ed Morrissey at Hot Air noted a CBS News story reported that “Over 60,000 members have left the AARP, angered by the group’s support for Barack Obama’s health-care reform efforts and silence on cuts to Medicare that will pay for them.” Perhaps that number was a very small indicator of a much larger trend.

It may be that AARP’s move was primarily motivated by a need to stop the bleeding caused by millions of members and potential members voting with their closed wallets.

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UPDATE: Thanks to Hot Air Headlines for the link. Keep in mind, based on demographics, as awesomely demonstrated at this graphic at Calculated Risk, AARP’s membership should be increasing, not decreasing.