With ADP’s better than expected report showing 157,000 jobs added in the private sector, estimates of overall seasonally adjusted job adds in today’s Employment Situation report are now between 120,000 and 200,000, according to the Associated Press.
BizzyBlog readers know that the raw data, i.e., the NOT seasonally adjusted numbers, is where the best info is in the POR (Pelosi-Obama-Reid) Economy’s topsy-turvy situation of past three years.
Here is where we stand:
I would say that the benchmarks for June jobs add should be 600,000 overall and 1 million in the private sector. We need a robust recovery, not a mediocre to nonexistent one.
On the seasonally adjusted side, I would not be surprised to see a number near the high side of the AP’s range which will shield the weakness in the underlying raw data (Update: See below; not exactly).
The report will appear here at 8:30 a.m.
HERE IT IS, with yet another round of bitter disappointment:
Nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged in June (+18,000), and the unemployment rate was little changed at 9.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment in most major private-sector industries changed little over the month. Government employment continued to trend down.
… Total nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged in June (+18,000). Following gains averaging 215,000 per month from February through April, employment has been essentially flat for the past 2 months. Employment in most major private-sector industries changed little in June, while government employment continued to trend down.
… Manufacturing employment changed little in June. Following gains totaling 164,000 between November 2010 and April 2011, employment in this industry has been flat for the past 2 months. In June, job gains in fabricated metal products (+8,000) were partially offset by a loss in wood products (-5,000).
Construction employment was essentially unchanged in June. After having fallen sharply during the 2007-09 period, employment in construction has shown little movement on net since early 2010.
… The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for April was revised from +232,000 to +217,000, and the change for May was revised from +54,000 to +25,000.
Thus (seasonally adjusted, of course) — in the 24th freaking month of “Rebound? What Rebound?” — the Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates that 26,000 fewer people (June’s +18K minus April’s and May’s downward revisions totaling 44K) were working at the end of June than were thought to be working at the end of May. O … M … G.
I’ll look at the NSA numbers when I can break through to the BLS’s updated data.
UPDATE: The actual jobs adds in the past three months are as follows –
June: Overall, 376K; Private, 840K (2003-2007 averages: Overall, 490K; Private 916K)
May: Overall, 631K; Private, 719K (2003-2007 averages: Overall, 845K; Private 849K)
April: Overall, 1173K; Private, 1146K (2003-2007 averages: Overall, 939K; Private 931K)
Interesting. April beat the 5-year averages from 2003-2007; May trailed badly; June trailed not as badly. Yet, after cooking in the seasonal adjustment kitchen was complete, June came out essentially as bad as May (+18K vs. revised +25K).
The administration got a break in May’s seasonal adjustment (as I pointed out in my Pajamas Media column a month ago) and got the shaft in June’s. I’d be tempted to say “What goes around comes around,” but if May 2011′s actuals had been reported in May 2007, the SA numbers would undoubtedly have come in negative, and Team Obama dodged that PR-disastrous bullet.
UPDATE 2: Birth/Death was +131,000 (HT commenter Greg), which, though it’s the same as last June, seems high. I would rate the odds that May and June 2011 ultimately end up being negative when all revisions are done, including the next two annual benchmark comprehensive revisions, as being pretty high.
UPDATE 3: Frequent commenter dscott has a post up at his place graphically demonstrating how disastrous the labor market of the past three years has been and how much damage the alleged recovery has done, with particular emphasis on the growth in part-time workers. It was done before today’s release, meaning that most of the data in his post only gets worse when June gets factored in.
UPDATE 4: Yesterday, Karl Denninger at Seeking Alpha impressively sniffed out the data divergence between unemployment claims and the impending employment report:
Unemployment Claims, Jobs Numbers Don’t Jibe
… I know the expectations for the NFP report just got boosted, and with cause given the ADP numbers, but the claims are now over 400k for 13 weeks running.
This is simply incongruent with job growth.
Denninger went on to predict that if today’s report came in weak, we’d see “a negative jobs figure within the next two to three months and likely a negative GDP by 1Q 2012.” As I said in Update 2, I think the chances are high that we’ll see May’s and/or June’s seasonally adjusted number go negative by the time all revisions, including the comprehensive benchmarks, which have averaged -415,000 per year during the past four years, get figured in. In other words, there’s a good chance that Denninger is already right about the first half of his prediction, and the BLS just hasn’t yet confirmed it.