Today’s GDP Headline Should Be: Economy Has STILL Not Fully Recovered From Recession, No Matter How You Define It
Before today’s GDP revisions going back to 2003, it was thought that the economy had officially recovered from the recession — whether defined by normal people (two or more consecutive quarters of contraction, which began in the third quarter of 2008) or by the National Bureau of Economic Research (which pegs the beginning as December 2007).
Today’s net downward revisions to 2008, 2009, and 2010 show that a full recovery since, while close, has STILL not yet officially occurred — a full two years after the recession by both definitions ended in June 2009 (Source: BEA Table 3B here):
So not only in terms of employment, but even in terms of growth, we can still say “Rebound? What Rebound?”
Anyone can eyeball the numbers here and see that the economy under Ronald Reagan clearly recovered by the end of its third post-recession quarter.
The only thing Barack Obama’s economy has in common with Reagan’s is that it’s being presided over by a guy whose first name contains six letters.