Per this comment at Hot Air:
2011 Straw Poll Full Results (Votes, %):
1. Congresswoman Michele Bachmann (4823, 28.55%)
2. Congressman Ron Paul (4671, 27.65%)
3. Governor Tim Pawlenty (2293, 13.57%)
4. Senator Rick Santorum (1657, 9.81%)
5. Herman Cain (1456, 8.62%)
6. Governor Rick Perry (718, 3.62%) write-in
7. Governor Mitt Romney (567, 3.36%)
8. Speaker Newt Gingrich (385, 2.28%)
9. Governor Jon Huntsman (69, 0.41%)
10. Congressman Thad McCotter (35, 0.21%)
Bachmann did what she had to do — but barely, which was win with a stacked deck in the state of her birth, and beat back what may be the last serious charge of the Ron Paul brigade.
Pawlenty is probably going to take his third place finish as an indicator of long-term viability, but I think he’s dreaming. He’s from adjacent Minnesota; a former two-term governor got doubled up by a third-term Congresswoman from the same state. He should have wiped the floor with her if he was really the candidate his supporters think he is. He’s not. (Update, August 14: Apparently, T-Paw read the tea leaves correctly and is “T-parting” from the race. Also, see the Update below.)
Santorum is the guy who gained the most in stature. I still don’t get why he brings anything important to the table, but he’s more than likely catching some of the social conservative vote.
Cain? His blocking and tackling is clearly making headway, as everyone else was in the dust (with Perry as a special case to be mentioned in a bit). The question is whether he has enough time to block and tackle his way to being in contention with Bachmann, Romney, and the others near the front (plus the just-declared Perry). I think he needs to work on his (pun intended) passing game.
Perry’s officially in, as of today. Yes, he was a write-in, but if he could only get less than 4% of the straws to vote for him, I don’t see how we’re supposed to be impressed.
We all knew Romney chickened out of Iowa six months ago. If he was hoping to have a “see how impressive I am when I’m not even trying?” moment, it didn’t happen.
Gingrich will not be our next president. He’s a usually brilliant ideas guy, as was apparently demonstrated in Thursday’s debate, but he has demonstrated that he can’t be allowed anywhere near anything resembling executive responsibility.
I think the Iowa caucuses are shaping up to be a situation where Bachmann, given her birthplace and current proximity, had better win very handily. If she doesn’t, her strength will be questioned, and it will dissipate from that point forward. Anyone who finishes a close second or maybe even a close third in Iowa will then become the one or ones to watch.
If Sarah Palin wants to enter the race, her time is running short. Other candidates are building organizations and momentum. The longer she delays, the harder it will be. Ask Fred Thompson about that. He entered the race on August 31, 2007. Given that the Iowa caucus and the primaries are a bit later this year, a new candidate might be able to get away with jumping in just after Labor Day, but that’s about as far as it goes.
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UPDATE: Scott at Powerline comments on T-Paw’s departure, and scores some accurate hits on Michele Bachmann’s conduct —
… she derailed Pawlenty’s aspirations.
… Bachmann’s attacks on Pawlenty during the Republican presidential candidates’ debate this week were almost entirely false and demagogic. Those of us who admire her can’t help but think less of her as a result.
It is disappointing that Pawlenty proved unable to maintain his campaign all the way to the Iowa caucuses next year. If Bachmann is highly unlikely to secure the Republican presidential nomination, Ron Paul, the second place finisher, is even less so. Pawlenty’s chances with Iowa Republican caucus participants would have been better than they were in the straw poll event.
But it is too simple to attribute the end of Pawlenty’s campaign entirely to Bachmann and the straw poll. The Pawlenty campaign started its downward descent from the moment he refrained from confronting Mitt Romney — in the first candidates’ debate — with the assault he had leveled against “Obamneycare” on one of the Sunday morning shows when Romney wasn’t in the room. Pawlenty never recovered from that momentary failure of nerve, which is what it appeared to me at the time, though the calculation that went into it probably belies that characterization.
Republicans are looking for someone who can stand up to Barack Obama and go toe to toe with him on the national stage. The hunger among Republicans on this score is almost palpable. If Pawlenty couldn’t land a fair punch on Romney to his face — not the cheap shot on the size of Romney’s lawn that he deployed during last week’s debate — one had to doubt that Pawelenty was the guy to face down Obama.
I disagree that Bachmann’s outlook for victory is “highly unlikely,” but I agree that she has not covered herself in glory with T-Paw.
Far more importantly, I should also note (again) that Bachmann’s official position on the debt-ceiling debate — that the ceiling should not have been raised for any conceivable reason — was untenable and financially impossible. Given her tax accounting background, she knew better, and took a cynical position to corral the votes of less astute folks with Tea Party sympathies whose hearts are in the right place but who don’t fully appreciate how quickly the Obama administration has made the government’s financial situation nearly terminal.
UPDATE 2, August 15, 1:00 a.m.: Prof. Jacobsen at Legal Insurrection (HT commenter dscott) also notes Bachmann’s whisper campaign against Sarah Palin, wherein the candidate’s peeps are in, per RCP, “a concerted effort from the Bachmann camp to spread rumors that Palin has already decided not to run and will eventually endorse the Minnesotan.”