The “must have charts” crowd will have to take a rain check, but the tables below make telling points about the “Rebound? What Rebound?” Economy (HT to BizzyBlog commenter Greg and Geoff at Ace’s Place for the nudge, and to Karen at the Bureau of Labor Statistics for the guidance):

Specifically:

• On a seasonally adjusted basis, July’s full-time employment was down over 800,000 compared to June 2009, the month the recession as normal people define it ended. Part-time employment was up slightly. Unfortunately, each of the data sources involved has its own independent seasonal adjustments, which is why the annoying differences on the third line are there.
• Given the quirks of seasonality, it’s important to look at the raw (i.e., not seasonally adjusted) numbers. Comparing July 2011 to July 2009 (to negate seasonality), we see that full-time employment this past month was 425,000 lower than it was two years ago. Part-time employment was also lower, by almost a quarter-million.

Two years into an alleged recovery we have fewer total workers. I know the Establishment Survey says differently, but given that it’s based on calls to companies, it’s not going to pick up a lot of employees who are out there at smaller entities or who are individually self-employed.

Let’s look at the differences there:

So:

• Comparing seasonally adjusted July 2011 to June 2009, we see that the gap between the two surveys has narrowed by almost 1.4 million, a 15% drop in the difference.
• Comparing not seasonally adjusted July 2011 to July 2009, we see that the gap between the two surveys has narrowed by over 1.7 million, another 15% drop.

What does it mean? To me, it indicates number of things, though the mix can’t be determined, and readers may have additional ideas:

• People who are looking for a way to make a living through work are looking to hook up with established employers instead of venturing forth on their own. This pattern of the past two years is yet more evidence that the Birth/Death Model the BLS uses to estimate net unfound jobs created or lost is highly suspect in a fear-based economy. Fewer people are starting up businesses, and when they do, they don’t hire many other people (if any).
• Given that total employment per the Household Survey has declined (even though the civilian 16-and-over population is up by about 4 million in the past two years), more people have given up seeking work or gainful employment and/or are working “off the books.” More than a few of them have decided to retire and start taking Social Security benefits to get by, but that doesn’t get you anywhere near a 4 million person decline.
• It may be that the explosion in payments to individuals, the ritual extensions of unemployment benefits, and the deliberate easing of benefit requirements in many government entitlement programs (e.g., food stamps, traditional welfare, even up to and including free cell phones) is leading many to conclude that they can get by on what they’re receiving indefinitely.

It gets tiresome repeating what should be obvious, but this is unsustainable.

The Journal is not a big fan of the ratings agencies, and says so in an editorial this morning.

The Journal also takes a shot at the ratings agencies’ indifference towards how a nation in trouble most effectively gets its house in order. There is a big difference in net result if you let the government spend like mad by spreading money out to more and more people, as seen in the spike at the far end of the graph at the right, compared to employing strategies designed to grow the economy

But it’s even less of a fan of the unprofessional whining coming out of the White House over S&P’s debt downgrade decision (bolds are mine):

… is there anything that S&P said on Friday that everyone else doesn’t already know? S&P essentially declared that on present trend the U.S. debt burden is unsustainable, and that the American political system seems unable to reverse that trend.

In that context, the Obama Administration’s attempt to discredit S&P only makes the U.S. look worse—like the Europeans who also want to blame the raters for noticing the obvious. Treasury officials and chief White House economic adviser Gene Sperling denounced S&P for relying on a Congressional Budget Office scenario that overestimated the U.S. discretionary spending baseline by $300 billion through 2015 and $2 trillion through 2021.

But even adjusting for that $2 trillion would only reduce U.S. publicly held debt to 85% or so of GDP—still dangerously high. And that assumes that recently agreed upon spending caps are sustained over a decade, something which rarely happens.

We think the larger problem with S&P, Moody’s and Fitch is that they make no distinction over how a nation balances its books—whether through tax increases or spending reductions. Like the International Monetary Fund, the raters care only about balance.

This takes too little account of the need for faster economic growth, which is the only real path out of a debt crisis. Britain’s government has earned rater approval for its fiscal consolidation, but its increases in VAT and income tax rates are hurting its tepid recovery. Letting the credit raters dictate tax increases is the road to an austerity trap.

The real reason for White House fury at S&P is that it realizes how symbolically damaging this downgrade is to President Obama’s economic record. Democrats can rail all they want about the tea party, but Republicans have controlled the House for a mere seven months. The entire GOP emphasis in those seven months—backed by the tea party—has been on reversing the historic spending damage of Mr. Obama’s first two years.

… But as recently as 2008 spending was still only 20.7%, and debt held by the public was only 40.3%, of GDP.

In the name of saving the economy from panic, the White House and the Pelosi Congress then blew out the American government balance sheet.

… The better answer—the only road back to fiscal sanity and AAA status—is to reverse the economic policies of the late Bush and Obama years. The financial crisis followed by the Keynesian and statist revival of the last four years have brought the U.S. to this downgrade and will lead to inevitable decline. The only solution is to return to the classical, pro-growth economic ideas that have revived America at other moments of crisis.

The graph at the top right is also interesting in what it reveals about the 1990s Clinton economy.

Although I’m not certain of what specifically caused the percentage of individuals receiving government money to go from 47% in 1992 to almost 60% in 1998 (my nominees would be SCHIP, expanded educational entitlements, and the expanded Earned Income Credit), in retrospect I don’t see how one could say it was needed, or healthy. It’s also interesting that a slight (too slight, to be clear) turndown in the percentage during the next couple of years coincides with the budget-balancing actions taken by then-Congressman and now Ohio Governor John Kasich and Republicans in Congress.

From Denver:

Aug 6, 2011 / 05:45 pm

Team Zaryen, a group of amputee soccer players who lost limbs in the devastating Haiti earthquake last year, demonstrated their impressive skills at the Knights of Columbus’ convention in Denver, Colorado this week.

Supreme Knight Carl Anderson, who visited Haiti in the earthquake’s aftermath, praised the players for their determination on Aug. 1 and noted the “greatness of the people of Haiti” and their “faithfulness and generosity of spirit.”

Port-au-Prince’s Team Zaryen is made up of players who received prosthetic devices through a partnership between the Knights of Columbus and Project Medishare.

At a press conference on Aug. 1 at the Sheraton Hotel in downtown Denver, the players moved around on crutches kicking a soccer ball with a strength and swiftness that surpasses most average players.

Coach Cedieu Fortilis told CNA that the team formed in September of 2010 and since then, has attracted about 40 members.

He said the community in Haiti, as well as everyone they encounter in their travels, are fascinated watching them play since “no one expects amputees to be able to do this.”

“There are no words,” he added, “to describe the blessing that the Knights of Columbus have been for us.”

Fortilis noted that the players chose the word “Zaryen” as their team name since it is the Creole word for Tarantula – a spider known to keep thriving even after the loss of a leg.

The team also announced that they will tour the U.S. this fall to run soccer clinics for wounded members of the U.S. Military.

“Following the earthquake there was a tremendous outpouring of support from the people of the United States, much of it coordinated by America’s armed forces,” said Dr. Robert Gailey, director of rehabilitation services for Project Medishare.

“Team Zaryen is now looking to return the favor by running clinics for wounded American services members this fall in the United States,” Gailey said, “and we are honored to be working together with the Knights of Columbus to assist these young people in Haiti and to be providing these clinics for the U.S. Military.”

Go here for the rest of the story.

We’ve just spent the past month or so having politicians and the press tell us that if there was no debt-ceiling deal by August 2, the government might default on its debts (of course, Tim Geithner and Barack Obama could indeed have strategically defaulted if they had wished, but work with me here).

But Sunday on Meet the Press, in a remark I expect will not be relayed much if at all by the rest of the establishment press, Alan Greenspan said that default is impossible — which puts him directly at odds with the rest of Washington’s elites and Ben Bernanke, his successor as Federal Reserve chairman. On July 14, Bernanke said: “A default on … (U.S. Treasury) securities would throw the financial system … potentially into chaos.”

Wait until you see the reason why Greenspan says default is impossible, as carried at CNBC’s web site in an item by Patrick Allen:
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In an otherwise typically dismal column about President Barack Obama which is one part pity party and another part an attempt at building him a he-man reputation (not kidding), New York Times columnist Maureen Dowd describes an upcoming movie featuring the exploits of Navy SEAL Team 6 in the operation which killed Osama Bin Laden on May 1.

Dowd celebrates the fact that the movie’s currently anticipated opening is October 12, 2012, describing it as “perfectly timed” and “just as Obamaland was hoping.” She expects that it will “give a home-stretch boost to a campaign that has grown tougher,” and “counter Obama’s growing reputation as ineffectual.”

Here are the relevant paragraphs from Dowd’s column, including reference to a New Yorker column about the operation which has become the subject of considerable controversy (bolds and numbered tags are mine):

But while Obama takes the high road, his aides have made sure there are proxies to exuberantly brag on him.

The White House clearly blessed the dramatic reconstruction of the mission by Nicholas Schmidle in The New Yorker — so vividly descriptive of the Seals’ looks, quotes and thoughts that Schmidle had to clarify after the piece was published that he had not actually talked to any of them. [1]

“I’ll just say that the 23 Seals on the mission that evening were not the only ones who were listening to their radio communications,” Schmidle said, answering readers’ questions in a live chat, after taking flak for leaving some with the impression that he had interviewed the heroes when he wrote in his account that it was based on “some of their recollections.” [2]

The White House is also counting on the Kathryn Bigelow and Mark Boal big-screen version of the killing of Bin Laden to counter Obama’s growing reputation as ineffectual. The Sony film by the Oscar-winning pair who made “The Hurt Locker” will no doubt reflect the president’s cool, gutsy decision against shaky odds. Just as Obamaland was hoping, the movie is scheduled to open on Oct. 12, 2012 — perfectly timed to give a home-stretch boost to a campaign that has grown tougher. [3]

The moviemakers are getting top-level access to the most classified mission in history [4] from an administration that has tried to throw more people in jail for leaking classified information than the Bush administration.

It was clear that the White House had outsourced the job of manning up the president’s image to Hollywood when Boal got welcomed to the upper echelons of the White House and the Pentagon and showed up recently — to the surprise of some military officers — at a C.I.A. ceremony celebrating the hero Seals. [5]

Just like W., Obama is going for that “Mission Accomplished” glow (without the suggestive harness). At least in this president’s case, though, something has been accomplished. [6]

Notes:

• [1] — I have read Schmidle’s account, and I believe that any reader would have thought that he actually spoke with the operation’s participants in reconstructing what happened. By the way, Schmidle conveniently did not mention, as the Associated Press reported on May 2, that the nom de guerre of Bin Laden’s courier had been identified through the use of enhanced interrogation techniques during the Bush administration.
• [2] — As Mediaite reported Monday with a follow-up post on Thursday, the admission that he never actually spoke to any raid participants was dragged out of Schmidle during the related online chat. Schmidle certainly didn’t seem to mind it when NPR, which has since issued a correction, originally reported that he “had spoken with Navy SEALs who participated in the raid.”
• [3] — Granting that the decision to approve the operation was a good one (though by some accounts Obama took his sweet time making it), the decision to have the movie made, in combination with its timing, betrays a crassness that seems as likely to turn off the general public as it is to build Obama up — especially if the situations in Iraq, Afghanistan, and elsewhere in the Middle East are marginal at the time.
• [4] and [5] — I don’t think I’m alone in questioning whether granting moviemakers access to classified information while we are still at war with the enemy in question is really wise. In fact, it seems very dangerous. What kind of security clearances were the people involved subject to? Who knows how our enemy might take advantage of information revealed in the film about technology, logistics, and tactics? Who can guarantee that the actual identifications (which filmmakers now know) of “the hero Seals” will remain confidential? Isn’t it possible that U.S. Muslim sympathizers might go after their families as well as the Seals themselves if their identities are accidentally revealed?
• [6] — Yeah, Maureen, I guess giving the okay to an operation to kill one guy (to be clear, a monster who needed to be killed) pales in comparison to liberating over 30 million Iraqis from the tyranny of Saddam Hussein, probably the worst mass murderer of the past 20 years. To Dowd, what Bush did is a non-accomplishment. We should also not forget that Barack Obama opposed the war from the outset; opposed the surge that finally achieved victory in that country; has allowed the situation in the country to regress, possibly to a dangerous point, since he has been president; and seems determined to pull U.S. troops out of Iraq at a rate which may not be supported by conditions on the ground.

Beyond the security issues and the potential tastelessness of putting out an election-year commercial posing as a feature film, it is intensely ironic that an administration which has seemed to bend over backwards to avoid offending Muslim and Middle Eastern sensibilities at every turn has no problem whatsoever doing what will from all appearances be a cinematic end-zone dance in front of the entire world.

I wonder (actually, I don’t) how Dowd would have felt about a movie glorifying the liberation of Kuwait in mid-October 1992, or an October 1984 film dramatizing President Reagan’s 1983 invasion and liberation of Grenada?

None of the issues raised here seem to bother Ms. Dowd in the least; in fact, I don’t see any evidence that they even occurred to her. Will anyone else in the establishment press care?

Cross-posted at NewsBusters.org.

On August 2 on the Senate floor, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid claimed that the economy under George W. Bush lost eight million jobs.

PolitiFact, which occasionally seems to engage in verbal gymnastics to give Democrats and leftists the benefit of the doubt, was more than a little annoyed with Reid’s claim, giving it a rating of “Pants on Fire.” As will be demonstrated later, almost no one else in the press has deemed Harry’s howler newsworthy.

Here are excerpts from PolitiFact’s pommeling (HT Doug Powers at Michelle Malkin’s place, where the preferred evaluation is “Liar, liar, pomegranates on fire”):

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From Investors Business Daily (HT Instapundit), additional elaboration not required:

Based on work by Heritage, Whittle asks important fundamental questions:

A healthy shot of perspective.

From Sioux Falls, South Dakota:

Aug 4, 2011 / 12:59 am

The Diocese of Sioux Falls, South Dakota recently celebrated the interior restoration of its Cathedral of St. Joseph, completing a 15-year effort to bring classical beauty back to the nearly century-old worship space.

“This is not the end but rather the beginning of a new day for the Cathedral of St. Joseph as a place to see beauty, learn about the faith, and draw closer to God,” said Sioux Falls Bishop Paul J. Swain, who welcomed worshipers and visitors after blessing the restored cathedral’s doors on July 25.

The formal dedication of the cathedral’s new altar took place the next day, along with the dedication of other parts of the sanctuary including the crucifix, tabernacle, and the bishop’s chair (or “cathedra”). Bishop Swain said both events were “wonderful opportunities to worship and give thanks to God for this sacred and restored cathedral.”

Former Sioux Falls bishop and current St. Louis Archbishop Robert J. Carlson attended the dedication, witnessing the completion of the redesign that he initiated during his leadership of the diocese. Bishop Donald J. Kettler of Fairbanks, Alaska, who is a former rector of the cathedral, also attended the ceremony.

“We are celebrating and giving thanks to God,” Bishop Swain said, “and to all who have so generously supported not only these two years of interior restoration, but all that has been done over the last 15 years.” The Cathedral of St. Joseph had been closed since 2009, and its parish Masses relocated elsewhere, to make way for the changes.

In addition to the artistic overhaul, designed by the acclaimed architect Duncan G. Stroik, the $16.2 million project also included extensive building maintenance and structural work, along with the complete replacement of the church’s electrical wiring, sound system, lights, heating and air conditioning. …

Go here for the rest of the story.

Via Solomon Moore at the Associated Press, who has a history which may become relevant as this unfolds:

31 Americans, 7 Afghans killed in helicopter crash

A military helicopter was shot down in eastern Afghanistan, killing 31 U.S. special operation troops, most of them from the elite Navy SEALs unit that killed al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden, along with seven Afghan commandos. It was the deadliest single incident for American forces in the decade-long war.

The Taliban claimed they downed the helicopter with rocket fire while it was taking part in a raid on a house where insurgents were gathered in the province of Wardak late Friday. It said wreckage of the craft was strewn at the scene. A senior U.S. administration official in Washington said the craft was apparently shot down by insurgents. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because the crash is still being investigated.

NATO confirmed the overnight crash took place and that there “was enemy activity in the area.” But it said it was still investigating the cause and conducting a recovery operation at the site. It did not release details or casualty figures.

“We are in the process of accessing the facts,” said U.S. Air Force Capt. Justin Brockhoff, a NATO spokesman.

One current and one former U.S. official said that the dead included more than 20 Navy SEALs from SEAL Team Six, the unit that carried out the raid in Pakistan in May that killed bin Laden. They were being flown by acrew of the 160th Special Operations Aviation Regiment. Both officials spoke on condition of anonymity because families are still being notified.

President Barack Obama mourned the deaths of the American troops, saying in a statement that the crash serves as a reminder of the “extraordinary sacrifices” being made by the U.S. military and its families. He said he also mourned “the Afghans who died alongside our troops.”

The death toll would surpass the worst single day loss of life for the U.S.-led coalition in Afghanistan since the war began in 2001 …

The concerns of those who wondered why we even identified the unit which went after Osama Bin Laden in May appear to have been validated.

So, is commander-in-chief Barack Obama going to act as he should, with swift, sure retribution and decide that we should be striving for v-v-v-v-victory — or will he use it as an excuse to claim that the greatest fighting for the world has ever seen can’t defeat an enemy whose primary advantage in conflict is our “rules of engagement”?

__________________________________________

UPDATE, 4:30 p.m.: I’m periodically saving AP revisions to see how the story evolves (or devolves) I may post links to saved versions of them later — update — depending on what AP does with or to the story.

UPDATE 2, 7:15 p.m.: We need to remember this from Toby Harnden, the Daily Telegraph’s US Editor, based in Washington, on May 4 (HT to Doug Ross; also excerpted at the time at Fox Nation):

Joe Biden opens his mouth about US Navy SEALs

Since President Barack Obama announced that “a small team of Americans” had killed Osama bin Laden, US government officials have carefully stuck to the line that they will not talk about which units were involved.

Obama did not say it was the SEALs. In numerous television appearances, Obama’s counter-terrorism chief John Brennan didn’t and his deputy national security adviser Denis McDonough didn’t. Despite the numerous news reports that named the SEALs, none of the anonymous briefers from the CIA and Pentagon would confirm it.

… But here’s what the legendarily verbose and loose-lipped Vice President Joe Biden said at a dinner at Washington’s Ritz Carlton Hotel last night to mark the 50th anniversary of the Atlantic Council:

Let me briefly acknowledge tonight’s distinguished honorees. Admiral James Stavridis is a, is the real deal. He can tell you more about and understands the incredible, the phenomenal, the just almost unbelievable capacity of his Navy SEALs and what they did last Sunday.

If Dick Cheney had done this, they’d have the noose ready by now — and, in the opinion of the proprietor at the Master Chief’s Lair (note: his opinion, not mine — yet), the punishment would be appropriate:

… I suspect that they (the Taliban) were tracking SEAL Team Six ever since the OBL event. How did the Taliban know who did the OBL job, Vice President Biden told the press!!! He blabbed a top secret op in the open to the press to look good! This moron is a danger to the security of America not to mention the lives of American fighting personnel.

… The Vice Presidents reckless abandonment of security classifications has lead to the death of 31 military members including 25 members of this elite team. He should be tried for treason and murder in my book. His desire to “look good to the press” by showing them he knew what was going on, permitted the Taliban to track and kill these men. If this was an enlisted man, he would be in a Courts Martial this morning and hung this afternoon. But not Vice President Biden. No, he will continue to be a threat to the lives of our military and the security of our Nation.

… Remember this event, these deaths in November 2012!!

To those who believe that the great State of Ohio would be just fine if the unbalanced post-1983, pre-2011 relationship between public-sector unions and their various government entities had been allowed to continue, I give you Central Falls, Rhode Island, as described in a Friday Wall Street Journal editorial (bolds are mine):

On Monday the small Rhode Island town of Central Falls declared bankruptcy because its sky-high labor costs had impaired its ability to pay its bills. The ratings agencies say the development is no surprise, but we wonder whether they’ll be saying the same thing when a bigger city falls off a cliff.

Central Falls’s financial problems are not much different from many states and municipalities. Inflexible and costly collective bargaining agreements have driven up its labor costs and crowded out services. The city is running $5 million annual structural deficits on a $16 million budget. Its pension and retiree health-care bills add up to $80 million. Public safety officers contribute a mere 7% of their salaries to pensions and can retire after 20 years with pensions equal to 50% of their final year’s salary. Such a system in which employees spend more time in retirement than working is unsustainable. Greece, Q.E.D.

… The city’s first receiver Mark Pfeiffer raised property and car taxes by more than 20%, but higher taxes merely drove residents out of town.

In February Governor Lincoln Chafee replaced Mr. Pfeiffer with retired state supreme court judge Robert Flanders. He, too, asked the unions for concessions but came up empty-handed. Mr. Flanders then shut down the city library and community center. In a last ditch effort to save the city from bankruptcy, Mr. Flanders asked retirees to accept scaled-back pensions and to contribute more to their health benefits. The retirees overwhelmingly voted no.

… Mr. Chafee, an independent, and the Democratic state legislature have committed to tackling pensions in the fall. State treasurer Gina Raimondo, a Democrat, recently issued a report that suggests modifying retirees’ cost-of-living adjustments, raising the retirement age and creating new hybrid pensions that include a 401(k)-style plan and a modest defined benefit. These all sound like good ideas, but the test of Democrats’ sincerity will be when the unions turn out en masse at the capitol to denounce them for betraying their party and trashing collective bargaining.

I wish it weren’t so, but time and again hard experience has taught that in the vast majority of circumstances public-sector unions will not give back when giving back is obviously needed — even if it means layoffs of less senior coworkers, and even if it means that their employers might go bankrupt. This is why the unbalanced public sector union-employer relationship needed to be changed in Ohio. SB5 did that.

Repealing SB5 would return us to the alternative described in the editorial, which, ultimately, would lead to dozens of Buckeye State renditions of Central Falls, large and small.

Brilliant, as usual, on the state of the nation’s finances, which is not strong:

Brokest Nation In History On Edge Of Armageddon

… And, if none of these parties seems inclined to pay down the debt now, what are the chances they’ll feel like doing so by 2020 when, under these historic “cuts,” it’s up to $23 trillion-$25 trillion?

Like America’s political class, I have also been thinking about America circa 2020. Indeed, I’ve written a book on the subject. My prognosis is not as rosy as the Boehner-Obama deal, as attentive readers might just be able to deduce from the subtle clues in the title: “After America: Get Ready For Armageddon.”

Oh, don’t worry, I’m not one of these “declinists.” I’m way beyond that, and in the express lane to total societal collapse. The fecklessness of Washington is an existential threat not only to the solvency of the republic but to the entire global order. If Ireland goes under, it’s lights out on Galway Bay. When America goes under, it drags the rest of the developed world down with it.

When I go around the country saying stuff like this, a lot of folks agree. Somewhere or other, they’ve a vague memory of having seen a newspaper story accompanied by a Congressional Budget Office graph with the line disappearing off the top of the page and running up the wall and into the rafters circa mid-century.

So they usually say, “Well, fortunately I won’t live to see it.” And I always reply that, unless you’re a centenarian with priority boarding for the ObamaCare death panel, you will live to see it. Forget about mid-century. We’ve got until mid-decade to turn this thing around.

Otherwise, by 2020 just the interest payments on the debt will be larger than the U.S. military budget. That’s not paying down the debt, but merely staying current on the servicing — like when you get your MasterCard statement and you can’t afford to pay off any of what you borrowed but you can just about cover the monthly interest charge.

… No author writes a dystopian apocalyptic doomsday book because he wants it to happen: Apart from anything else, the collapse of the banking system makes it hard to cash the royalty check. You write a doomsday book in hopes you can stop it happening.

But time is running short. If you think we’ve got until 2050 or 2025, you’re part of the problem.

As readers know, I’m not convinced we even have the four years Steyn says we have (I think it’s more like two or three), but Steyn is far closer to the truth than the Congressional Budget Office or most of the rest of Washington will admit.