October 5, 2011

ADP Private-Sector Jobs, +91K; ISM Non Manufacturing, 52.6%

Filed under: Economy,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 10:41 am

First, ADP, from its press release (bolds are mine):

According to today’s ADP National Employment Report, employment in the nonfarm private business sector rose 91,000 from August to September on a seasonally adjusted basis. Employment in the private, service-providing sector rose 90,000 in September, up slightly from an increase of 83,000 in August. Employment in the private, goods- producing sector rose a scant 1,000 in September, while manufacturing employment declined by 5,000.

“Like August, this month’s jobs report continues to show modest job creation,” said Gary C. Butler, Chief Executive Officer of ADP. “The number of jobs added to the private sector in August and September were virtually identical. Once again, the small business services- sector led the way, contributing almost two-thirds of all new jobs. Small businesses overall showed positive growth for the 22nd straight month and averaged 73,000 jobs a month for
the past 12 months. Professional business services, education and healthcare, and leisure services led all other sectors in new jobs added.”

According to Joel Prakken, Chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC, “Today’s ADP National Employment Report suggests that employment grew moderately in September. The recent trend in private employment, as indicated by the ADP National Employment Report, remains moderate, and probably is below a pace consistent with a stable unemployment rate.

The result matched Business Insider’s email prediction, though others (here and here) expected 75,000. The new is nothing special, but at least there’s nothing especially negative beyond the negativity we’ve long since become used to.

Now to the Institute for Supply Management’s Non Manufacturing Index:

Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in September for the 22nd consecutive month, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.

… “The NMI registered 53 percent in September, 0.3 percentage point lower than the 53.3 percent registered in August, and indicating continued growth at a slightly slower rate in the non-manufacturing sector. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased 1.5 percentage points to 57.1 percent, reflecting growth for the 26th consecutive month. The New Orders Index increased by 3.7 percentage points to 56.5 percent. The Employment Index decreased 2.9 percentage points to 48.7 percent, indicating contraction in employment after 12 consecutive months of growth. The Prices Index decreased 2.3 percentage points to 61.9 percent, indicating prices increased at a slower rate in September when compared to August. According to the NMI, nine non-manufacturing industries reported growth in September. Respondents’ comments reflect an uncertainty about future business conditions and the direction of the economy.”

Business Insider’s email predicted 52.6 percent.

Obviously, the reported employment contraction (any reading below 50 percent represents contraction) is not helpful. It’s also not encouraging that the balance between industries reporting expansion and those reporting contraction was only 9-8.

Zero Hedge is quite correct in noting the uniformly downbeat nature of respondents’ comments.

The two reports probably won’t do much to the current employment-growth predictions for Friday’s employment report. Current jobs-added estimates are as follows: 60,000 at Reuters, 56,000 at AP, and 90,000 at Bloomberg. The current consensus is that the unemployment rate will stay the same.

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