November 22, 2011

3Q11 GDP Revised From Annualized +2.5% to +2.0%

Filed under: Economy,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 9:24 am

Gee, “someone” said that the number was probably too high a month ago.

From the full release at Uncle Sam’s Bureau of Economic Analysis:

Real gross domestic product — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States — increased at an annual rate of 2.0 percent in the third quarter of 2011 (that is, from the second quarter to the third quarter) according to the “second” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 1.3 percent.

… The “second” estimate of the third-quarter increase in real GDP is 0.5 percentage point, or $15.0 billion, lower than the advance estimate issued last month, primarily reflecting downward revisions to private inventory investment, to nonresidential fixed investment, and to personal consumption expenditures that were partly offset by a downward revision to imports.

Business Insider’s email predicted 2.4%. Reuters, which is now moving the punch bowl by predicting 3% for the fourth quarter, predicted 2.5%. So did Bloomberg.

Well, we’d better see if there’s still a real recovery in place. Yeah, by the barest of margins — and the private sector’s GDP is STILL smaller than it was at the end of 2007:

GDPrecovAndPubPvt3Q11at1111

Another 0.4% or 0.5% drop in the final revision (which I don’t expect) would mean that the whole economy was smaller at the end of the third quarter of this year than it was at the end of 2007.

The worst post-recession economic performance of any recovery since World War II marches on.

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