March 6, 2012

Super Tuesday Live Thread

Filed under: Taxes & Government — Tom @ 9:55 pm

Note: Sincere apologies to those who wanted to comment here last night. Yours truly pulled up an old draft post where comments were turned off and didn’t realize it, i.e., there was an error between the operator and the keyboard.

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12:17 p.m. — Romney is ahead of Santorum by about 11,000 votes, and will almost definitely hold on. Given that he outspent Santorum by about 6-1 and disgracefully lied about Santorum’s record, I don’t see why anyone should be impressed.

Wednesday, 12:08 a.m. — Mary Jo Kilroy has lost to Joyce Beatty in the OH-03 Dem primary.

11:57 p.m. — Romney up by 7,500 votes over Santorum with 92% counted. Not-Romney has 62% of the total. There still is no presumptive frontrunner, and don’t even try to pretend that there is. In somewhat stale news, Santorum won North Dakota, and Romney won Idaho.

11:51 p.m. — Marcy Kaptur buried Dennis Kucinich by about 15 points. On the GOP side, Joe the Plumber only has a 2-point lead over his challenger. Can’t tell what % of the vote has been counted, but I do know that Dem votes outnumber GOP votes by about 2.5 to 1, making Kaptur look at the moment like a November shoo-in.

11:46 p.m. — Romney has moved into a 7,000-vote lead with (a guesstimate) 90% counted.

11:40 p.m. — The SOS site has virtually all results for OH-02 except Clermont, which Wenstrup won, and shows him with a 3,700-vote lead. It’s over. Wenstrup wins.

11:30 p.m. — Unless I’m missing something really obvious, Brad Wenstrup is the Republican candidate for Congress in OH-02. He beat Schmidt by about 8,000 votes in Hamilton County, and about 2,500 in Clermont. I don’t see how Schmidt makes that up in the smaller counties.

11:25 p.m. — Jean Schmidt may have lost to Brad Wenstrup. Wenstrup took Clermont County. A quick look at Hamilton County is in order …

11:22 p.m. — Drudge is showing Romney with a half-point lead. At the SOS site, Wenstrup is ahead of Schmidt by about 1,700 votes in OH-02, but I still think Clerco hasn’t come in.

11:11 p.m — 1,700 votes, 81% counted.

10:44 p.m. — With about 70% reporting, Santorum’s statewide lead is down to about 3,000 votes.

10:42 p.m. — In what I believe will be seen as a bit of an upset if it holds, former Congresswoman Mary Jo Kilroy may not win the Democratic Party primary in OH-03. She trails by about 1,000 votes and 3 points with perhaps 25% of the vote counted.

10:40 p.m. — In Kaptur-Kucinich on the Democratic Party side in OH-09, Kaptur leads by about 8 points and look like she’ll win. What will we do for entertainment?

10:35 p.m. — Potential stunner of the night — Jean Schmidt only leads Brad Wenstrup by about 1,100 votes with maybe (my estimate) 35% of the votes counted. Since Schmidt’s native Clermont County’s results are dragging, she may be safe, but …

10:30 p.m. — Statewide, Santorum is clinging to a 13,000-vote lead, now with (this is an estimate, because the rolling display at the SOS site isn’t cooperating) about 45% of the vote counted.

10:26 p.m. — Mark at Weapons of Mass Discussion can be very proud that Brown County, his native county delivered a stunning 20-point margin for Rick Santorum tonight (with only two precincts left to count). Wow.

10:21 p.m. — Romney is also ahead in Butler County with about 44% counted by about 4 points.

10:18 p.m. — As expected, Romney is winning Hamilton County rather handily with 45% of the vote counted.

10:11 p.m. — In Warren County, Rebecca Heimlich has won a State Central Committee seat. From all appearances, her opponent withdrew, which is strange, considering that I received mailers from the Ohio Republican Party bought with money which should be going to defeat Barack Obama in the fall supporting Heimlich’s opponent maybe two weeks ago. This is a gain for the anti-Kevin DeWine Central Committee forces.

10:06 p.m. — On the other hand, I think the fact that Clermont County hasn’t reported any results for Santorum is good news, as I think he will win there, perhaps handily.

10:02 p.m. — Early not-good news for Santorum, in my view: Romney wins yours truly’s home county of Warren County. With only three precincts left, Romney has a 6-point, 2,000-vote margin. I would have expected Santorum to do better here. I think he did too.

10:00 p.m. — As of a moment ago, via the Ohio SOS main elections page, Rick Santorum had a 13,000-vote lead with about 32% of the precincts reporting. Where those results are coming from is what matters, and we’ll be looking into that.

9:55 p.m. — Well, we can’t check out everything at once, but we’ll try.

The main news at the moment is that Mitt Romney has won MA, VT, and VA, while Santorum has won OK and TN. None of these five results is unexpected.

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