April 19, 2012

Ouch: Initial Unemployment Claims: 386K SA; Last Week’s SA Revised up 8K; NSA Claims 4% Lower than Year-Ago Figure (UPDATE: Basically Back to Where We Were in December)

Filed under: Economy,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 8:43 am

From DOL, it looks like things are getting out of control again:

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA (SA — Ed.)

In the week ending April 14, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 386,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 388,000. The 4-week moving average was 374,750, an increase of 5,500 from the previous week’s revised average of 369,250.

UNADJUSTED DATA (Not seasonally adjusted, or NSA — Ed.)

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted , totaled 367,550 in the week ending April 14, a decrease of 22,916 from the previous week. There were 381,834 initial claims in the comparable week in 2011.

Business Insider’s email had a consensus prediction of 365,000. This is known as a really, really big miss.

Last week’s SA number of 380,000 was revised upward by 8,000.

The most recent NSA number is less that 4% below last year’s figure.

Can’t wait to see the press put lipstick on this pig, and to ignore the (again) big upward revision to the previous week. If we get a similar upward revision next we’ll be getting into the mid-390s.

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UPDATE: Two weeks after the initial release, the week ended March 31 was revised down to 362,000; I haven’t seen a downward revision after two weeks in the roughly 60 weeks I’ve been monitoring the weekly claims numbers closely. It just serves to make the last two weeks’ figures of 388K and 386K (pending revisions) look that much worse.

UPDATE 2: So we’re basically back to where we were in late December —

UnempClaimsWeeksEnding041411

If this week gets upwardly revised by amounts similar to the past couple, we’ll be worse off.

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