May 3, 2012

AP’s Wiseman Points to Obama Reelection Based on Predicted Unemployment Rate Drop to (Wowie Zowie) 7.9%

Well, we can all stop thinking about the presidential election, because Barack Obama’s victory is assured. This morning, Paul Wiseman at the Associated Press, aka the Administration’s Press, virtually celebrated analysts’ predictions that the unemployment rate will drop a whole 0.3% between now and Election Day to 7.9%. But in searching desperately for a precedent, he claimed that a public which has historically tended to have a “What have you done for me lately?” mentality has rewarded presidents seeking reelection who have seen the jobless rate decline in “the two years before the election.” By this “logic,” Obama will be reelected even if the unemployment rate zooms to 9.7% by Election Day, because that rate will still be lower than November 2010 rate of 9.8%. So, as I said, it’s over.

What follows in rebuttal isn’t a claim that Obama won’t get reelected. But if he does, it will be certainly be for reasons other than the economy’s (brace yourself) “brighter jobs picture” and its move into a “virtuous cycle.” Excerpts from Wiseman’s wheezing follow the jump (bold is mine; HT to BizzyBlog commenter “Tony”):

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Initial Unemployment Claims, Week Ended April 28: 365K SA, Down from Upwardly Revised 392K in Previous Week; Year-Over-Year NSA Claims Down Over 20%

Filed under: Economy,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 8:45 am

From the Department of Labor:

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending April 28, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 365,000, a decrease of 27,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 392,000. The 4-week moving average was 383,500, an increase of 750 from the previous week’s revised average of 382,750.

UNADJUSTED DATA

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 330,475 in the week ending April 28, a decrease of 40,158 from the previous week. There were 415,974 initial claims in the comparable week in 2011.

The consensus per Fox News was 380K. The seasonally adjusted figure would have been about 4K higher if last year’s seasonal adjustment divisor of .896 had been used instead of this year’s .906.

The drop in NSA claims is pretty from 416K to 330K is pretty gratifying.

This the first improvement in some time, so it will be interesting to see how much of a revision occurs to this week’s number next week and whether the downward movement folds, holds, or continues downward.

Thursday Off-Topic (Moderated) Open Thread (050312)

Filed under: Lucid Links — Tom @ 7:15 am

Rules are here. Possible comment fodder may follow later. Other topics are also fair game.

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Positivity: Argentine ‘Miracle Baby’ Continues to Improve

Filed under: Life-Based News,Positivity — Tom @ 7:10 am

The original CNN story from three weeks ago (“Argentine ‘miracle’ baby found alive after death declaration”) is here.

Catholic News Agency has an update on Luz Milagros’s condition:

Buenos Aires, Argentina, May 1, 2012 / 04:02 pm (CNA).- Luz Milagros, the baby who was found alive after spending twelve hours in a morgue in Argentina, continues to improve and gain weight although she is still on a respirator.

According to an April 30 report by CNN, Luz now weighs two pounds and is no longer receiving inotropic drugs.

Although her condition is still serious, the progress she has made in recent days has given hope to her mother, Amalia Bouget, the rest of the family and the staff at Perrando Hospital in the province of Chaco.

According to the news agency, Luz’s three siblings are “anxiously awaiting” her at home to accompany her on the final stage of her recovery.

Amalia Bouget gave birth prematurely to Luz at 26 weeks of pregnancy. After being declared stillborn by doctors, the baby spent 12 hours in the freezing cold temperatures of the morgue with no food or clothing, before she was found alive.

Stories on Luz are also at the UK Daily Mail and CBS News.