June 5, 2012

BLUMER: Is Indiana Eating Ohio’s Economic Lunch?

Filed under: Lucid Links — Tom @ 11:59 pm

Four reasons why it’s probably happening.

_________________________

In the interstate competition for business and jobs, Indiana, which late last year looked like a laggard, now appears to be a leader.

Table 5 at the federal government’s  January 24 Regional and State Employment and Unemployment news release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed the Hoosier State picking up 17,700 jobs in 2011. At the time, the state’s 0.63% increase in its workforce during the year was a dismal 37th among the 50 states.

Current data at BLS now shows that Indiana picked up 41,200 jobs in 2011, more than twice as many as originally reported, moving the state into the top quartile of job gainers. Meanwhile, Ohio, reported as having picked up 72,400 jobs last year in that January 24 report, now shows only 37,800 jobs added.

Whatever happened to change last year’s data so significantly doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence in this year’s numbers. With that obviously necessary caution, let’s look at 2012 thus far.

Ohio has added 43,600 seasonally adjusted jobs. Indiana, whose workforce is over 40% smaller than Ohio’s, has added 35,300. The Hoosier State is outperforming Ohio again, even without the help of later write-ups.

(more…)

Hysterical CNN, AP Headlines: ‘Walker Survives’

As of 11:15 p.m., with about 74% of the votes counted, Wisconsin Governor Scott was ahead of Scott Barrett by roughly a 56-44 margin. Late-arriving votes from Democrat-heavy areas of Milwaukee and Dane Counties seemed likely to narrow the margin to perhaps 10 points. (UPDATE: Because heavier margins of support for Barrett in those two counties, the final margin was 6.9%, roughly the same as Barack Obama’s 7.4% margin in 2008, which was never labeled a “survival” or “narrow” or anything similar.)

The headlines currently at CNN (HT to a NewsBusters tipster) and the Associated Press both act as if Walker squeaked by. Pics follow the jump.

(more…)

Wisconsin Live Thread (10 p.m. — Walker in a Walk; Wis Dems Win Five-Month Senate Control; UPDATE: The Control Means Nothing)

Filed under: Taxes & Government — Tom @ 8:43 pm

I’m going to take a chance and leverage Ace’s interactive map.

Other links: Here.

Exit polls have Walker up by about 5 points. There are five other recall-related races which I’ll get to when I know something about them. Update, June 6: per AP: “The GOP again came out victorious Tuesday, with three Republican senators appearing to have easily defeated recall attempts while GOP state Rep. Jerry Petrowski beat Democratic Rep. Donna Seidel to win in the 29th Senate District. The race between state Sen. Van Wangguard and John Lehman was too close to call at press time.” Update II, June 6: Hold the champagne — “Democrats appeared to have assumed control of the state Senate with results posted early Wednesday showing former Sen. John Lehman (D-Racine) defeating incumbent Van Wanggaard in a tight race.” A recount will apparently ensue, but the margin is almost 800 votes. Update III, June 8: Per John Fund at National Review — “But that majority, if it happens, may represent a Pyrrhic victory. The senate is out of session for the rest of the year with no business being transacted. And the new districts being used for state senate elections this November were carefully crafted to maximize GOP advantages. Most observers say it is hard to see Democrats keeping any senate majority they might have after November.”

9:15 p.m. — It’s not a big percentage, but Barrett is only ahead by about 10 points in Dane County, home of the People’s Republic of Madison, with 7% of the county counted. Barrett needs huge numbers here and in Milwaukee to have a chance.

9:27 p.m. — Walker is still getting 44% of the vote in Dane with 16% of reporting.

9:37 p.m. — Statewide with 7% counted, Walker is up 59-41. But there’s still almost nothing out of Milwaukee, where Barret needs a huge majority. 9:44 p.m. — Still 59-41, with 9%.

9:47 p.m. — Starting to look like a rout. Walker is up 60-40 with 13% counted. With 5% counted in Milwaukee County, Walker has the lead there.

9:55 p.m. — Really looking like a rout. Walker is up 62-38 with 20% counted.

10:01 p.m. — It’s narrowing a bit, because Dane is going 60-40 for Barrett now. But Barrett needs more like 2-1 there. Milwaukee is only 7% counted, and Walker still has the lead there.

10:03 p.m.A caller has told me that Fox News has called it for Walker.

10:11 p.m. — With 32% of the vote counted, Walker’s lead is larger than his victory margin with ALL the votes counted in November 2010.

10:24 p.m. — 41% counted, Walker holds a 59-41 lead. The only dramas which remain are whether Dane County will go 2-1 for Barrett (I’d say fairly close, but not quite) and whether Walker can hold on in Milwaukee County (close, but I doubt it; but if he does, what an incredible repudiation). Ace’s interactive map is/was outstanding.

10:35 p.m. — 50% counted. Walker is on track to win by three times as many votes as he did in 2010. Take away Dane County, and Walker’s margin is 62-38.

10:40 p.m. — MichelleMalkin.com’s Doug Powers reports that “Wisconsin Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch, who faced a separate election, will survive the recall effort.”

11:00 p.m. — It would appear that the People’s Republic of Madison in Dane County will probably be the only one where Barrett ends up doing better in the recall than he did in 2010′s general. He has jump well past a 2-1 margin on Walker. I would suggest that the Governor consider moving the state capital to a more sane climate.

11:03 p.m. — Walker still leads in Milwaukee County, but only 15% of the vote is counted, but it seems hugely unlikely that Walker’s current 4,000-vote lead will turn into the 81,000-vote loss he experienced there in 2010. (Wrong — see below.)

12:36 p.m.: — Looks like the final margin will be about eight points, and walker’s margin, contrary to earlier indications, is going to be about 50& greater than in 2010.

Contrary to earlier indications (and to yours truly’s assessments), Madison/Dane County went well over 2-1 for Barrett, and his winning margin in that county was higher than in 2010. Milwaukee, in a complete turnabout from earlier returns, also is on track to go for Barrett by a significantly larger margin than in 2010.

FINAL NOTE: The polarization in the Badger State is really stark. It’s Madison and Milwaukee (roughly 2-1 Barrett) vs. the rest of the state (60-40 Walker).

Fibbing to the End: AP’s Bauer Claims That Act 10 ‘Stripp(ed) Most Public Employees of Their Union Right to Collectively Bargain’

As he has for nearly 16 months, the AP’s Scott Bauer once again included a false statement about what the budget repair legislation also known as “Act 10″ passed by Wisconsin’s legislature and signed by Governor Scott Walker last year did to public-sector unions and their ability to collectively bargain.

He wrote: “Enraged Democrats and labor activists gathered more than 900,000 signatures in support of the recall after they failed to stop Walker and his GOP allies in the state Legislature from stripping most public employees of their union right to collectively bargain.” Y’know, Scott, you’ve been writing this garbage for 16 months. You can keep it up for the next 16 months or 16 years, but what won’t change is that fact that your statement today and the equivalent statements you’ve written in the past simply aren’t true, and never will be.

(more…)

CBO: Maxed Out America Coming in Fiscal 2021

Filed under: Economy,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 1:02 pm

For the must-have-charts crowd:

CBOpublicDebtVsGDPJune2012

As I wrote in a PJM column last year, “Maxed Out America” is the point at which “Public Debt” (i.e., debt the federal government owes to entities which aren’t already part of the government; thus it includes people, other countries, and any other non-federal government entity) hits 90% of a country’s national output, otherwise known as gross domestic product (GDP).

At that point, most economists believe that a country’s ability for its debt to be seen as “risk-free” starts to dissipate, and the interest rates it must pay on its borrowings starts going above the risk-free rate. A difficult to stop, Grecian-like downward spiral would likely ensue. Righting the ship would be excruciatingly difficult.

The graphic above massages the original CBO graphic seen here which came out this morning. It shows that the ratio will hit 73% by the end of fiscal 2012 in less than four months, and will hit the 90% maxed-out threshold sometime during fiscal 2021.

I’ll save the details for another column, but I will say that the CBO outlook is extremely and overly optimistic.

Latest PJ Media Column (‘May’s Jobs Report: As Good As We’ll See This Year?’) Is Up

Filed under: Economy,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 8:32 am

It’s here.

It will go up here at BizzyBlog tomorrow (link won’t work until then) after the blackout expires.

______________________________________

Related: Commenter dscott brought up this graphic which went up at Zero Hedge (HT at Small Dead Animals) on Saturday:

FullVsParttimeEmplyment0107to0512

As ObamaCare and Taxmageddon loom, the move to part-timers and temps is going to get much more aggressive out of sheer necessity.

Then of course there’s the stimulus promise graph which James Pethokoukis has updated:

StimulusPromiseGraphThroughMay2012

Additionally, I noted yesterday how African-Americans made up 46% of the 220,000 increase in the number of unemployed Americans in May.

Tuesday Off-Topic (Moderated) Open Thread (060512)

Filed under: Lucid Links — Tom @ 7:00 am

Rules are here. Possible comment fodder may follow later. Other topics are also fair game.

__________________________________________

Positivity: Abortion survivor urges mothers to choose life

Filed under: Life-Based News,Positivity — Tom @ 5:57 am

From the Southest Missourian (HT Life News):

Sunday, May 27, 2012

Claire Culwell was faced with challenges even before her birth. At the age of 13 her mother became pregnant and chose to have an abortion. What her mother didn’t know at the time is that she was pregnant with twins. Sometime later she returned to an abortion clinic to find out the news, where she was told it was too late to have a second abortion.
Placed on life support at birth, Culwell dealt with some difficult health issues — including dislocated hips and feet turned inward. Despite the challenges, she’s grateful to have lived to tell her story. …

Q: What led you to seek out your birth mother?

A: My sister had an amazing reunion with her birth mother. Her reunion was next to perfect. I thought that if reunions could be that easy, I might as well meet mine. After meeting my sister’s birth mother, I got to thank her for giving me my sister. Our family would not be the same without my sister. At the very moment I thanked her, I realized that I hadn’t thanked the woman that gave me my family and my life. I knew I needed to thank her and with that, I made the call to my adoption agency to search for my birth mother in October of 2008.

Q: Growing up, and before meeting your biological mother, did you ever feel like you were a twin?

A: Yes, I used to ask my parents, “Where is my brother?” It never felt like I wanted a brother or wished I had a brother — I was absolutely convinced I had a brother and he was missing.

Q: When your birth mother told you about the abortion, what was your reaction?

A: I was completely shocked. It took a long time to process. It took months. Initially, I was shocked. It was hard to fully believe. After months of realizing the truth of my birth, I began to grieve the loss for myself, my twin, my birth mother and even my parents. Through my grieving and my realization of being an abortion survivor and a twin, my life was forever changed.

Q: When did you become a Christian?

A: I became a Christian very young, in fact, I don’t remember becoming a Christian. My parents work for Campus Crusade for Christ and have for over 35 years. So I was raised by a very godly couple with a firm Christian foundation. If you’re asking when I really began to claim my faith as my own, that was through a series of events in high school and college.

Q: How has your faith guided you in light of the challenges you faced early on both physically and emotionally?

A: I know that if I hadn’t been a Christian and hadn’t known the grace, love, protection, faithfulness and truth of my parents as well as God’s word, I would have had a lot of anger, hurt, guilt, and responded to the “news” my birth mother gave me very differently. However, due to my strong Christian upbringing and the fruits of the spirit that I knew so well, I was able to really apply them and cling to what I knew about God — that He has a plan. Trials, tribulation, pain, suffering, hurts … these are words I don’t necessary care for, but the amazing thing about them is that they bring you closer to God, show you why he is in control and make you appreciate the life you have been given. I may have a life with “suffering” and “hardship” written throughout it quite often, but I also have a life with “God’s faithfulness” written faithfully throughout it for the past 24 years. …

Go here for the whole interview.