June 14, 2012

Unemployment Claims: 386K SA, 374K NSA; Year-over-year NSA Drop Only 7%

Filed under: Economy,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 8:53 am

From the Department of Labor:


In the week ending June 9, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 386,000, an increase of 6,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 380,000. The 4-week moving average was 382,000, an increase of 3,500 from the previous week’s revised average of 378,500.


The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 373,540 in the week ending June 9, an increase of 49,155 from the previous week. There were 400,608 initial claims in the comparable week in 2011.

Business Insider’s email predicted a drop to 375K. Oops. There was only a 1% difference between this year’s and last year’s seasonal adjustment factors. Had last year’s factor been used on this year’s data, this year’s reported SA number would have been 390,000.

Being stuck in the 380s and possibly higher, after the inevitable upward adjustment coming next week, is not a good place to be. The not seasonally adjusted drop of only 6.7% compared to last year is especially troubling.

In Ohio, claims of 10,437 during the week ended June 2 were almost identical to the previous week.


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