September 17, 2012

Can You Top This? CBS/NYT Poll Weights Results Among Registered Voters Dems 35%, Republicans 22%

In a campaign season which is on track to go down as the worst ever for cooked polling, one from CBS News and the New York Times has outdone everyone to this point.

Clearly, they didn’t like what a properly weighted result would have told them, which is that Mitt Romney is in a deadlock with Barack Obama if one uses Gallup’s party affiliation numbers from before Democratic National Convention, or that he’s up by five points if one opts for Rasmussen’s affiliation numbers. In their latest poll, with registered voters, CBS/NYT not only oversampled Democrats, but they took the number of actual responses and further weighted them towards Dems, as seen after the jump.

Here is the CBS/NYT weighting exercise (found at the very end of the poll in the Scribd document; HT Mike Flynn at Breitbart):

CBSpollWeights091712

So an 8-point margin among people they actually spoke with wasn’t enough. So they weighted it further. There is no support for this action.

Taking the the three key results before weighting from the poll — namely the Dem margin for Obama, the GOP margin for Romney, and Romney’s margin among independents (these margins are among likely and not registered voters, but the margins among RVs were as far as I could tell not disclosed) — one can see the results I teased earlier based on Rasmussen’s party affiliation findings in August and Gallup’s from before the Democratic National Convention:

CBSpollRedp091712

The CBS/NYT poll says that Obama is ahead by eight points with registered voters and by three points among likely voters. Sure, guys. You’re not fooling us.

Flynn’s wrap: “The polls confirm that the media aren’t really biased. Rather, they are active players for the other team.” Dishonestly active.

Cross-posted at NewsBusters.org.

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4 Comments

  1. It’s full rout desperation time for the MSM, now they are harping on Romney’s comments about 47% percent of population who are Obama supporters and dependent on the government who will never support him (Romney) no matter what.

    Nothing of what Romney said is controversial but entirely factual. Independents will decide this election. Romney needs those independents who voted for Obama in 2008 to vote for him in 2012. Those who are dependent on government aid will more than likely never vote for Romney much less any Republican since they believe they are entitled of the labors from the other 50%.

    Comment by dscott — September 18, 2012 @ 7:05 am

  2. Is it too much to expect that the 2008 Obama supporters who voted for the first time ‘to be a part of history’ will just stay home this time? And then Tea Party folks who never got involved before 2010 will show up droves?

    In other words, is it possible that the difference in enthusiasm between the respective bases will determine the election, as opposed to the direction of the independents?

    I’m just asking because I haven’t followed elections closely enough to read the breakdown behind the results.

    Comment by GW — September 18, 2012 @ 10:22 am

  3. There are reports that many black pastors are encouraging their flocks to stay home over same-sex marriage.

    Comment by Tom — September 18, 2012 @ 10:26 am

  4. [...] Can You Top This? CBS/NYT Poll Weights Results Among Registered Voters Dems 35%, Republicans 22% [...]

    Pingback by Can You Top This? CBS/NYT Poll Weights Results Among Registered Voters Dems 35%, Republicans 22% | PERSUASION IN INK — September 18, 2012 @ 2:19 pm

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