Background: On Saturday, Associated Press reporters Thomas Beaumont and Charles Babington wrote:
Tide shifts to Obama in most competitive states
… the advantage has shifted toward President Barack Obama after a series of miscues by Mitt Romney, punctuated by the Republican challenger’s comments about people who pay no income tax.
… the race has bent toward Obama at a pivotal moment, according to public and internal campaign polls as well as interviews with leading Democratic and Republican strategists in the most closely contested states.
“Tide Shifts” Update:
The Gravis Marketing poll’s weighting (see Page 3 at the link) was 41.4% Dems, 31.1% GOP, and 27.5% Indies (i.e. Dems +10.3) — and the poll still shows that the Prez and Senate races in the Buckeye State are for all practical purposes tied.
The sample size of 594 is not large enough to take this poll beyond the “Hmm” level. But the bigger point is that it is reasonable to believe, based on their write-up’s false air of confidence, that the AP’s Beaumont and Babington wrote what they did on Saturday because Team Obama has internal polling data telling them that there is indeed a shift, and that it’s in Romney’s direction. The flaks for the Administration’s Press felt that they needed to try to counter it.