From Rasmussen — pay no attention to the cooked polls which infest Real Clear Politics. The Ohio U.S. Senate race is deadlocked:
Sunday, October 07, 2012
The U.S. Senate race in Ohio is now a tie.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Ohio Voters finds incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown and his Republican challenger Josh Mandel each earning 46% support. Two percent (2%) like another candidate, and six percent (6%) are undecided.
Ohio now shifts back from Safe Democrat to a Toss-up in the Rasmussen Reports Senate Balance of Power rankings.
Good news, considering that Sherrod Brown’s SuperPACs have unleashed what, if memory serves, is the most disgraceful set of dishonest attack ads I have ever, ever seen on Mandel. They apparently haven’t worked.
UPDATE, 2:45 p.m.: Wenzel Strategies has a poll which Politico is predictably downplaying –
The Republican-leaning outside group Citizens United is releasing a poll showing a tight presidential race and a tight Senate contest in Ohio, the key battleground where Mitt Romney has consistently been behind in public and private polls.
The survey, by Wenzel Strategies, has Romney in a statistical dead heat with President Barack Obama, 48 percent with leaners to 47.3 percent for Obama, and 4.7 percent undecided.
In the Senate contest between Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown and Republican state Treasurer Josh Mandel, the GOPer is up by about 4 percentage points in the survey, which has a roughly 3-point margin of error and included 1,072 people from Oct. 4 through Oct. 5, the two days after the presidential debate.
The toplines and poll memo are viewable here and here.
The poll has a 38-37-25 split of Republicans and Democrats. That’s far more representative of the balance of party affiliation in the Buckeye State than the Ohio polls released by most other organizations thus far. It still probably understates relative Republican turnout, and turnout by the portion of the electorate which considers itself independent with Tea Party values.
UPDATE 2: Oh my. The Wenzel poll’s memo says that Mandel is leading Brown in Northeastern Ohio by 48% to 42%.