October 11, 2012

Initial Unemployment Claims: Big Drop to 339K SA; Previous Week Revised Up (of Course) by 4K; NSA Down 25% from Last Year (UPDATE: One ‘Large State’ Missing)

Filed under: Economy,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 9:55 am

UPDATE: See this later post — California didn’t turn in 15,000 – 25,000 claims. Imagine that.

From the Department of Labor:

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending October 6, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 339,000, a decrease of 30,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 369,000. The 4-week moving average was 364,000, a decrease of 11,500 from the previous week’s revised average of 375,500.

… UNADJUSTED DATA

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 327,063 in the week ending October 6, an increase of 25,990 from the previous week. There were 405,906 initial claims in the comparable week in 2011.

The seasonal factors used were 96.4 this year and 100.9 for the comparable week last year. This year’s seasonally adjusted figure would have been about 15,000 lower if last year’s factor had been used.

So is it for real, or just another example of the Department of Labor telling how really, really bad President Obama’s debate performance was? Zero Hedge’s headline is that the “Data Massaging Continues.” I say look out for the size of next week’s inevitable upward adjustment, year-over-year changes in the state figures (which always trail by a week), and anything that might happen to the overall figure (which has been known to occur) in the report which comes out in two weeks.

UPDATE: O … M … G — in the Wall Street Journal: “There was a caveat to the upbeat report, however, as one large state didn’t report additional quarterly figures as expected, accounting for a substantial part of the drop, the Labor Department noted.” How convenient — and what “quarterly figures” have to do with a weekly report is a complete mystery.

A “large state” (assuming “large” refers to population) would most likely be one of the following: California (running at about 50,000 claims per week), Florida (13K), Georgia (10K), Illinois (12K), Michigan (10K), New York (22K), North Carolina (10K), Ohio (10K), Pennsylvania (19K), or Texas (16K). Zheesh.

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6 Comments

  1. That’s just like saying, “If you don’t count the dumb kids, all our kids are smart.”

    Comment by GW — October 11, 2012 @ 11:56 am

  2. You must know someone in Columbus City Schools.

    Comment by Tom — October 11, 2012 @ 12:12 pm

  3. Magic Egg Ball says that it’s California, and once they get reported, we’ll see something in the 365K-range.

    Comment by steveegg — October 11, 2012 @ 1:24 pm

  4. Oh c’mon, you cheated (just kidding) — either that or I want the Magic Egg Ball to start generating some lottery numbers.

    It is California, and the new range is 354-364K.

    Comment by Tom — October 11, 2012 @ 1:48 pm

  5. So it turns out it’s the most populous state *and* one of the bluest of the blue. Shocking…not.

    Comment by zf — October 11, 2012 @ 3:47 pm

  6. [...] California snafu involving unsubmitted claims from last week carried over into this [...]

    Pingback by BizzyBlog — October 18, 2012 @ 9:13 am

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