October 25, 2012

Initial Unemployment Claims: 369K SA; NSA Claims Down 9% From Year Ago

Filed under: Economy,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 8:33 am

I won’t have time to analyze until much later today, if at all.

Predictions for today’s initial unemployment claims are:

  • Business Insider’s email has 372,000
  • Reuters has 370,000.

Here goes, from the Department of Labor:

In the week ending October 20, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 369,000, a decrease of 23,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 392,000. The 4-week moving average was 368,000, an increase of 1,500 from the previous week’s revised average of 366,500.

… UNADJUSTED DATA

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 342,702 in the week ending October 20, a decrease of 20,032 from the previous week. There were 377,156 initial claims in the comparable week in 2011.

Last week was revised up by 4,000, which is just above the norm for the past 19 months.

Basically a “same old, same old” mediocre result.

How George McGovern Met the Real World: His 1992 Wall Street Journal Column

Filed under: Economy,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 8:23 am

Posted in full for future reference (bolds are mine):

George McGovern in the Journal
A Politician’s Dream Is a Businessman’s Nightmare: A 1992 column on the realities of running a business

Wisdom too often never comes, and so one ought not to reject it merely because it comes late.

– Justice Felix Frankfurter

It’s been 11 years since I left the U.S. Senate, after serving 24 years in high public office. After leaving a career in politics, I devoted much of my time to public lectures that took me into every state in the union and much of Europe, Asia, the Middle East and Latin America.

In 1988, I invested most of the earnings from this lecture circuit acquiring the leasehold on Connecticut’s Stratford Inn. Hotels, inns and restaurants have always held a special fascination for me. The Stratford Inn promised the realization of a longtime dream to own a combination hotel, restaurant and public conference facility — complete with an experienced manager and staff.

In retrospect, I wish I had known more about the hazards and difficulties of such a business, especially during a recession of the kind that hit New England just as I was acquiring the inn’s 43-year leasehold. I also wish that during the years I was in public office, I had had this firsthand experience about the difficulties business people face every day. That knowledge would have made me a better U.S. senator and a more understanding presidential contender.

Today we are much closer to a general acknowledgment that government must encourage business to expand and grow. Bill Clinton, Paul Tsongas, Bob Kerrey and others have, I believe, changed the debate of our party. We intuitively know that to create job opportunities we need entrepreneurs who will risk their capital against an expected payoff. Too often, however, public policy does not consider whether we are choking off those opportunities.

My own business perspective has been limited to that small hotel and restaurant in Stratford, Conn., with an especially difficult lease and a severe recession. But my business associates and I also lived with federal, state and local rules that were all passed with the objective of helping employees, protecting the environment, raising tax dollars for schools, protecting our customers from fire hazards, etc. While I never have doubted the worthiness of any of these goals, the concept that most often eludes legislators is: “Can we make consumers pay the higher prices for the increased operating costs that accompany public regulation and government reporting requirements with reams of red tape.” It is a simple concern that is nonetheless often ignored by legislators.

For example, the papers today are filled with stories about businesses dropping health coverage for employees. We provided a substantial package for our staff at the Stratford Inn. However, were we operating today, those costs would exceed $150,000 a year for health care on top of salaries and other benefits. There would have been no reasonable way for us to absorb or pass on these costs.

Some of the escalation in the cost of health care is attributed to patients suing doctors. While one cannot assess the merit of all these claims, I’ve also witnessed firsthand the explosion in blame-shifting and scapegoating for every negative experience in life.

Today, despite bankruptcy, we are still dealing with litigation from individuals who fell in or near our restaurant. Despite these injuries, not every misstep is the fault of someone else. Not every such incident should be viewed as a lawsuit instead of an unfortunate accident. And while the business owner may prevail in the end, the endless exposure to frivolous claims and high legal fees is frightening.

Our Connecticut hotel, along with many others, went bankrupt for a variety of reasons, the general economy in the Northeast being a significant cause. But that reason masks the variety of other challenges we faced that drive operating costs and financing charges beyond what a small business can handle.

It is clear that some businesses have products that can be priced at almost any level. The price of raw materials (e.g., steel and glass) and life-saving drugs and medical care are not easily substituted by consumers. It is only competition or antitrust that tempers price increases. Consumers may delay purchases, but they have little choice when faced with higher prices.

In services, however, consumers do have a choice when faced with higher prices. You may have to stay in a hotel while on vacation, but you can stay fewer days. You can eat in restaurants fewer times per month, or forgo a number of services from car washes to shoeshines. Every such decision eventually results in job losses for someone. And often these are the people without the skills to help themselves — the people I’ve spent a lifetime trying to help.

In short, “one-size-fits-all” rules for business ignore the reality of the marketplace. And setting thresholds for regulatory guidelines at artificial levels — e.g., 50 employees or more, $500,000 in sales — takes no account of other realities, such as profit margins, labor intensive vs. capital intensive businesses, and local market economics.

The problem we face as legislators is: Where do we set the bar so that it is not too high to clear? I don’t have the answer. I do know that we need to start raising these questions more often.

Thursday Off-Topic (Moderated) Open Thread (102512)

Filed under: Lucid Links — Tom @ 6:05 am

Rules are here. Possible comment fodder may follow later. Other topics are also fair game.

__________________________________________

Positivity: Pope announces six new cardinals, including an American

Filed under: Positivity — Tom @ 6:01 am

From Vatican City:

Oct 24, 2012 / 09:09 am

At today’s general audience, Pope Benedict XVI announced he will appoint six new cardinals, including an American, at a consistory that will be held Nov. 24.

“I invite everyone to pray for the newly elected, asking the maternal intercession of the Blessed Virgin Mary, that they will always love with courage and dedication to Christ and his Church,” the Holy Father said in a St. Peter’s Square, which was teeming with pilgrims and visitors, many who came to Rome for Sunday’s canonization of seven new saints.

The cardinals-elect are: Archbishop James M. Harvey, Prefect of the Papal Household; Bechara Boutros Raï, Maronite Patriarch of Antioch in Lebanon; Major Archbishop Baselios Cleemis Thottunkal of India, head of the Syro-Malankara Catholic Church; Archbishop John Olorunfemi Onaiyekan of Abuja, Nigeria; Archbishop Ruben Salazar Gomez of Bogotá, Colombia; and Archbishop Luis Antonio Tagle of Manila in the Philippines.

“The cardinals have the task of helping the Successor of Peter in carrying out his ministry of confirming the brethren in the faith, and that is the principle and foundation of unity and communion of the Church,” the Pope noted. …

Go here for the rest of the story.

Positivity: Cardinal Newman Society releases college guide with expanded resources

Filed under: Education,Positivity — Tom @ 6:00 am

From Manassas, Virginia (internal link added by me):

Oct 25, 2012 / 02:30 am

The Cardinal Newman Society has published its 2012-2013 edition of “The Newman Guide to Choosing a Catholic College,” along with a companion magazine to help high school students and their parents pursue faithful higher education.

Patrick J. Reilly, president of the Cardinal Newman Society, explained that it is “not enough that our Catholic sons and daughters survive college with their faith intact.”

“Catholic college graduates should be wise, pure, and ready to serve with distinction in any career and vocation,” he said. “The colleges and universities in The Newman Guide provide this preparation for life.”

First published in 2007, the Newman Guide evaluates the Catholic identity of colleges to identify those that exhibit fidelity and excellence.

The latest edition of the guide includes thorough profiles of the 28 recommended colleges, offering facts on each institution’s academics, spiritual life, student activities and residence life. …

Go here for the rest of the story.