3Q12 Gross Domestic Product: 2% Annualized (See Updates)

From the Bureau of Economic Analysis (bolds are mine throughout this post):

Real gross domestic product — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States — increased at an annual rate of 2.0 percent in the third quarter of 2012 (that is, from the second quarter to the third quarter), according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 1.3 percent.

The Bureau emphasized that the third-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see box below). The “second” estimate for the third quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on November 29, 2012.

The increase in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), federal government spending, and residential fixed investment that were partly offset by negative contributions from exports, nonresidential fixed investment, and private inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.

The acceleration in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected an upturn in federal government spending, a downturn in imports, an acceleration in PCE, a smaller decrease in private inventory investment, an acceleration in residential fixed investment, and a smaller decrease in state and local government spending that were partly offset by downturns in exports and in nonresidential fixed investment.

In the 13th quarter after the Reagan-era recession ended growth was an annualized 3.1% — and the press at the time was starting to make noises about a “slump.” We could have used a “slump” like that during the three years of this so-called “recovery.”

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UPDATE: Yippee skippy — the result beat Bloomberg’s expectations of 1.8%.

UPDATE 2: Zero Hedge —

… the details are, as expected, ugly … over one third, or 0.71% (compared to a deduction of -0.14% in Q2, and 0.64% of the 0.71% came from defense spending), was contributed by “Government Consumption.” This was the biggest rise in government spending in 3 years, and only the first contribution by Uncle Sam to its own GDP print since Q2 2010. So in much the same way as the September jobs print soared courtesy of government employee hiring, this same government is now juicing its own numbers to make itself look better.

UPDATE 3: Pethokoukis —

Weak GDP report shows no end in sight for the Long Recession

… Today’s GDP report also reinforces just how badly the Obama White House overestimated the impact of its economic stimulus:

– In August of 2009, the White House—after having a half year to view the economy and its $800 billion stimulus response—predicted that GDP would rise 4.3% in 2011, followed by 4.3% growth in 2012 and 2013, too. And 2014? Another year of 4.0% growth.
– In its 2010 forecast, the White House said it was looking for 3.5% GDP growth in 2012, followed by 4.4% in 2013, 4.3% in 2014.
– In its 2011 forecast, the White House predicted 3.1% growth in 2011, 4.0% in 2012 and 4.5% in 2013, 4.2% in 2014.
– In its most recent forecast, the White House predicted 3.0% growth this year and next, and then back to 4.0% after that. The current consensus is for 2013 growth to be a lot like 2012 growth.

And as for next quarter and next year? Putting the fiscal cliff aside, analysis are looking for more of the same. Growth around 2%.