Initial Unemployment Claims: 363K SA, Down From Last Week’s Upwardly Revised 372K; NSA Claims Down 8% Year-Over-Year
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA
In the week ending October 27, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 363,000, a decrease of 9,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 372,000. The 4-week moving average was 367,250, a decrease of 1,500 from the previous week’s revised average of 368,750.
… UNADJUSTED DATA
The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 339,750 in the week ending October 27, a decrease of 5,476 from the previous week. There were 369,647 initial claims in the comparable week in 2011.
Basically, it’s the same-old same-old.
Last week’s figure was, as usual, revised up by 3,000.
The prediction in Business Insider’s email was for 369K, which is barely above where it will be next week after the usual upward revision.
The seasonal adjustment factors for this week and the same week last year are virtually identical (92.9 vs. 93.6).
Despite the excitement from a few weeks ago, when California was late in submitting tens of thousands of claims, the weekly claims figure is in what would be called a “trading range” if it were a stock of mid-360s to low-370s.
None of this represents anything which should convince anyone that meaningful improvement is taking place.