SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA
In the week ending November 17, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 410,000, a decrease of 41,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 451,000. The 4-week moving average was 396,250, an increase of 9,500 from the previous week’s revised average of 386,750.
… UNADJUSTED DATA
The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 397,671 in the week ending November 17, a decrease of 80,872 from the previous week. There were 440,157 initial claims in the comparable week in 2011.
The upward revision to last week was 12,000 (from 439K to 451K).
There was a big change in the year-to-year seasonal factors used, from 112.7 for last year’s comparable week to 97.1 this year. It’s hard to imagine why there would be such a big difference from one year to the next, as both weeks involved were the last full week of business before the Thanksgiving week. If last year’s seasonal factor would have been used on this year’s raw number, seasonally adjusted claims would have come in at 353,000 (397,671 divided by 1.127, rounded), which would have made it a pretty decent week. It will be interesting to see if anyone in the press picks up this odd swing in seasonal factors.