SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA
In the week ending November 24, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 393,000, a decrease of 23,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 416,000. The 4-week moving average was 405,250, an increase of 7,500 from the previous week’s revised average of 397,750.
… UNADJUSTED DATA
The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 357,015 in the week ending November 24, a decrease of 46,541 from the previous week. There were 372,640 initial claims in the comparable week in 2011.
Last week’s figure of 410,000 was revised up by 6,000.
One doesn’t want to conclude too hastily when what we’re looking at is the week of Thanksgiving, but 393K is really not a good number. On a seasonally adjusted basis, it came in below last year’s comparable week (also containing Thanksgiving) by less than 2 percent.
This week’s seasonal factor of 90.8 was somewhat lower than last year’s comparable 93.4. If last year’s factor had been applied to this week’s raw claims, the reported seasonally adjusted number would have been 382,000 (357,015 divided by .934, rounded), or 11.000 claims lower. Still, being in the 380s isn’t impressive either.
It’s starting to look like this is more than just a “Sandy” thing, but I’ll wait until next week before more fully evaluating.