SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA
In the week ending December 1, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 370,000, a decrease of 25,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 395,000. The 4-week moving average was 408,000, an increase of 2,250 from the previous week’s revised average of 405,750.
… UNADJUSTED DATA
The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 498,619 in the week ending December 1, an increase of 139,678 from the previous week. There were 528,793 initial claims in the comparable week in 2011.
As usual, last week was revised upward, this time by 2,000.
The change in seasonal factors between years wasn’t that important this time around. This year’s factor was 134.7; last year’s comparable factor was 137.9.
If last year’s seasonal factor was applied to this year’s raw number of claims, the reported seasonally adjusted result would have been 8,000 claims lower (498,619 divided by 137.9 is 362,000, rounded).
It looks like we’re back to the unimpressive 360-380K water-treading range. The “good news,” post-Sandy, is that it hasn’t worsened yet.