December 9, 2012

IBD on Friday’s Jobs Report: ‘Recession Mode’

Filed under: Economy,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 10:53 am

In a Friday evening editorial (bolds are mine):

‘Bullish’ November Data Mask An Ugly Truth About Jobs

… look closer, and you see recession mode.

With nonfarm payrolls swelling by 146,000 and the jobless rate easing from 7.9% to 7.7%, November looked pretty good to many pundits. But the underlying trends aren’t so favorable, and the future, with a slowing economy about to drive off a fiscal cliff, isn’t bright at all.

Start with payroll jobs. The 146,000 wasn’t awful, but to make a serious dent in joblessness, we need to add at least 200,000 a month for a prolonged period. In this poisoned atmosphere for business, that won’t happen.

… OK, but we still have private-sector job growth, right? Not really. In the last six months, 621,000 of the 847,000 new jobs created have been in government, not the private sector, according to CNSNews.com. That’s 73% of all jobs — not a healthy labor market.

As for that big “drop” in the unemployment rate, all of it was due to the fact that 540,000 Americans are no longer looking for work. They either dropped out, took early disability or retired. Since the start of 2009, 9.7 million Americans have fallen into this category.

All told, more than 24 million Americans who want jobs don’t have them, driving the labor force participation rate to 63.6%, just above August’s 31-year low of 63.5%. This is the worst labor market in a recovery ever.

And it may get worse. The quarterly Wells Fargo/Gallup small-business survey found that 21% plan to cut jobs over the next six months — a surge from 10% last June and a record high.

… Why is the labor market refusing to recover as it has in the past, with millions of new jobs each year amid rapid economic growth? In a word, Obamanomics.

Thanks to ObamaCare, “stimulus” spending of $860 billion, threats of higher tax rates on small business owners and entrepreneurs, the economy’s going nowhere. We may soon enter a new small-business recession that can be blamed on no one but Barack Obama.

True enough, but Obama and his press apparatchiks will spend more time and energy trying to blame it all on someone else instead of doing the simple and obvious things needed to create a growing economy.

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5 Comments

  1. That last sentence of yours looks odd, as if you meant to change it midstream.

    I hate pointing out this stuff sometimes, because it might make me look like some know it all nitpicker.

    Comment by zf — December 9, 2012 @ 11:51 am

  2. #1, thx for catching. Was way too rushed this morning and didn’t hit “update” after fixing most of the problems with what was there.

    Comment by Tom — December 9, 2012 @ 3:55 pm

  3. Related:

    Obamaland: Number Of Americans On Food Stamps Jumps By Over 600K In September To New All-Time High…

    http://weaselzippers.us/2012/12/09/obamaland-number-of-americans-on-food-stamps-jumps-by-over-600k-in-september-to-new-all-time-high/

    If the economy is going so great then why are more and more people on Food Stamps?

    So isn’t it once again fortunate that these figures appear AFTER the election???

    Next election, we need someone to actually follow the stats and point out the awkward points.

    Comment by dscott — December 9, 2012 @ 7:29 pm

  4. New MSM meme I heard on morning news, seasonal holiday hiring is up, may be record for past 5 years.

    I believe was sourced from here:

    Annual Snagajob seasonal hiring survey shows the best holiday job market in five years

    http://www.snagajob.com/employer-solutions/blog/annual-snagajob-seasonal-hiring-survey-shows-the-best-holiday-job-market-in-five-years/

    The economy is doing great, until it’s not. This is all in preparation of blaming the GOP for the results of the Fiscal Cliff and shifting the blame off of ObamaCare layoffs. The set up is all but complete. The economy is already crapping out but it needs to stay good until it can be UNEXPECTEDLY occurring.

    Related, the local MSM reporting that gasoline prices down 10 cents over last 3 weeks, soft pedals weakening demand.

    Gas prices crash? Prices drop 10 cents in three weeks (+video)
    Gas prices crash? The average price of gasoline in the US has dropped 10 cents in the past three weeks, and it may be going lower.

    By The Associated Press / December 10, 2012

    note who created the story

    http://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/Latest-News-Wires/2012/1210/Gas-prices-crash-Prices-drop-10-cents-in-three-weeks-video

    Comment by dscott — December 11, 2012 @ 7:31 am

  5. #4, Snagajob Survey? Heh, that’s real convincing, MSM.

    Comment by zf — December 12, 2012 @ 2:29 pm

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