SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA
In the week ending December 8, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 343,000, a decrease of 29,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 372,000. The 4-week moving average was 381,500, a decrease of 27,000 from the previous week’s revised average of 408,500.
… UNADJUSTED DATA
The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 428,814 in the week ending December 8, a decrease of 72,117 from the previous week. There were 435,863 initial claims in the comparable week in 2011.
As “SteveEgg” commented at this morning’s open thread, “The administration caught a hell of a seasoning break in jobless claims – 429K unseasoned translated to 343K seasoned, compared to 436K unseasoned last year translating to 371K seasoned.”
Yes it did — And by the time next week is revised, we’ll probably see about 3,000 more raw claims, making the this year’s and last year’s raw claims even closer to being identical.
If last year’s comparable-week seasonal conversion factor of 117.4 had been used on last week’s raw number instead of the 124.9 actually used, claims would have come in 22,000 higher (428,814 divided by 1.174 is 365,000, rounded).
Today’s report is pretty much a NewsBusters post waiting to happen, as I don’t expect most of the press to care (or in most cases even notice) that this year’s raw number is barely lower than last year’s, even though that’s the real news in today’s report.