February 14, 2013

Initial Unemployment Claims (021413); 341K SA: 359K NSA, down 2% from Same Week in 2013

Filed under: Economy,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 8:39 am

The number is 341,000 according to a CNN email, but I don’t see it yet at DOL.

Here it is … scratch that, they linked to an older report … waiting …

OK, working with the 341K … last year’s seasonal adjustment factor was 101.2. This year’s is 105.5, so I can say that if last year’s factor had been used on this year’s raw number which had to be about 360K, today’s seasonally adjusted number would have been about 355K.

Okay, here we go:

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending February 9, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 341,000, a decrease of 27,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 368,000. The 4-week moving average was 352,500, an increase of 1,500 from the previous week’s revised average of 351,000.

UNADJUSTED DATA

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 359,428 in the week ending February 9, a decrease of 29,014 from the previous week. There were 365,014 initial claims in the comparable week in 2012.

This is not an awful result in context. It’s certainly not as glorious as the 341K “official” reading would lead one to believe. Raw claims only went down about 2% from the same week last year, while the seasonally adjusted comparison makes you think they went down by about 6%. That’s the difference between “getting somewhat better” (the exaggeration) and “barely better” (the reality).

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UPDATE: Zero Hedge says IL and CT claims were estimated.

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