February 21, 2013

Initial Unemployment Claims (022113): 362K SA and 346K NSA, Both Same as Last Year

Filed under: Economy,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 8:20 am

Predictions:

The seasonal factors:

  • This week (week ended Feb. 16) — 95.8
  • Same week last year (week ended Feb. 18, 2012) — 95.7

Raw claims, same week last year: 346,659

Raw claims, last week (before any revisions this week): 359,428

Last year’s raw result led to a seasonally adjusted reading of 362,000. A repeat of last week’s raw claims will also lead to a seasonally adjusted reading this year of 362,000. A major uptick of 24,000 or more from last week’s raw claims will push the seasonally adjusted number to 400,000.

The report will be here at 8:30.

Here it is (direct link):

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending February 16, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 362,000, an increase of 20,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 342,000. The 4-week moving average was 360,750, an increase of 8,000 from the previous week’s revised average of 352,750.

UNADJUSTED DATA

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 346,428 in the week ending February 16, a decrease of -14,758 from the previous week. There were 346,659 initial claims in the comparable week in 2012.

Well, things are exactly where they were a year ago. If there’s any kind of upward revision of this week’s raw number next week, we’ll be slightly worse off than a year ago.

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