SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA
In the week ending February 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 344,000, a decrease of 22,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 366,000. The 4-week moving average was 355,000, a decrease of 6,750 from the previous week’s revised average of 361,750.
… UNADJUSTED DATA
The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 307,589 in the week ending February 23, a decrease of 43,208 from the previous week. There were 334,242 initial claims in the comparable week in 2012.
The seasonal adjustment factors were virtually identical in both years.
This is the first week of year-over year improvment after six weeks during which this year’s claims basically matched last year’s. Both weeks contained President’s Day.
This needs to continue. I’m skeptical that it will.