May 2, 2013

Initial Unemployment Claims (050213); 324K SA; Previous Week Bumped Up 3K; Raw Claims Down 10.5% From Same Week Last Year

Filed under: Economy,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 7:34 am

Predictions:

Bloomberg — 345,000 seasonally adjusted claims.

Reuters — 345,000.

Seasonal Adjustment Factors:
- Week ended April 28, 2012 — 89.9
- Week ended April 27, 2013 — 92.1

Raw Claims:
- Week ended April 28, 2012 — 333,476
- Week ended April 20, 2013 — 323,529 (before revision)

Pre-release update: A repeat of last week’s raw claims number (before revision) would lead to a seasonally adjusted result of 351,000 (323,529 divided by .921, rounded). Last year, raw claims dropped from 370K to 333K. Maybe a similar drop will happen again, but I don’t think so.

The report wil be here at 8:30.

HERE IT IS (permanent link): This one’s pretty good, because the raw claims drop was similar to last year’s —

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending April 27, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 324,000, a decrease of 18,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 342,000. The 4-week moving average was 342,250, a decrease of 16,000 from the previous week’s revised average of 358,250.

… UNADJUSTED DATA

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 298,692 in the week ending April 27, a decrease of -27,143 from the previous week. There were 333,476 initial claims in the comparable week in 2012.

If last year’s seasonal adjustment factor had been used on today’s raw number, seasonally adjusted claims would have come in at 332,000 (298,692 divided by .899, rounded).

Thursday Off-Topic (Moderated) Open Thread (050213)

Filed under: Lucid Links — Tom @ 6:05 am

Rules are here. Possible comment fodder follows. Other topics are also fair game.

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Thought for the day, via an emailer:

Isn’t it strange that after a bombing, everyone blames the bomber, but after a shooting, the problem is the gun!

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Stimulus: It never ends

Fed Open to Expanding QE as It Counters Talk of Tapering

Facing the risk of a fourth straight summertime slowdown, Federal Reserve officials raised the prospect of increasing the monthly pace of bond buying above $85 billion to guard against any slump in growth or employment.

The Fed’s statement yesterday that it’s “prepared to increase or reduce the pace of its purchases” was a signal that its $3.32 trillion balance sheet is a flexible tool for monetary policy that can be adjusted up or down, like interest rates.

Yeah, I’ll believe if the “down” part of that statement ever happens.

The balance sheet is also a potential political tool to use against any administration the Fed decides it doesn’t like.

We are in so much trouble as a nation.

Positivity: Retired Illinois bishop dies after 70 years of priesthood

Filed under: Positivity — Tom @ 6:00 am

From Rockford, llinois:

Apr 30, 2013 / 11:03 am

Bishop emeritus Arthur J. O’Neill of Rockford, Ill., died at his residence on April 27. The 95-year-old had recently celebrated the 70th anniversary of his priestly ordination.

The faithful will be able to visit Bishop O’Neill’s body on May 2 from 4-8 p.m. at the Cathedral of St. Peter in Rockford, and the Office of the Dead will be prayed there at 7:30.

Bishop O’Neill’s funeral Mass will be said the following day, May 3, at 11 a.m. by Bishop David J. Malloy of Rockford.

Born Dec. 14, 1917 in East Dubuque, in the Rockford diocese, Bishop O’Neill attended seminary at St. Mary’s in Baltimore. He was ordained a priest on March 27, 1943.

While a priest, Bishop O’Neill served as a pastor, editor of the diocesan paper “The Observer,” director of a men’s spiritual association, the Holy Name Society, head of the diocesan commission on sacred music and as a member of the diocesan tribunal.

Bishop O’Neill was named a monsignor in 1963, and was appointed Bishop of Rockford on Aug. 19, 1968. His episcopal motto was “Ut omnes unum sint,” which means “That all may be one.” He was consecrated a bishop on Oct. 11 of that year by Archbishop Luigi Raimondi, then the apostolic delegate to the U.S.

As bishop of Rockford, he established several parishes and institutions, as well as offices for communications and Hispanic ministry. In 1976, he oversaw the sponsoring of 108 refugees from Vietnam who settled in the diocese. …

Go here for the rest of the story.