Initial Unemployment Claims (050213); 324K SA; Previous Week Bumped Up 3K; Raw Claims Down 10.5% From Same Week Last Year
Bloomberg — 345,000 seasonally adjusted claims.
Reuters — 345,000.
Seasonal Adjustment Factors:
- Week ended April 28, 2012 — 89.9
- Week ended April 27, 2013 — 92.1
- Week ended April 28, 2012 — 333,476
- Week ended April 20, 2013 — 323,529 (before revision)
Pre-release update: A repeat of last week’s raw claims number (before revision) would lead to a seasonally adjusted result of 351,000 (323,529 divided by .921, rounded). Last year, raw claims dropped from 370K to 333K. Maybe a similar drop will happen again, but I don’t think so.
The report wil be here at 8:30.
HERE IT IS (permanent link): This one’s pretty good, because the raw claims drop was similar to last year’s —
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA
In the week ending April 27, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 324,000, a decrease of 18,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 342,000. The 4-week moving average was 342,250, a decrease of 16,000 from the previous week’s revised average of 358,250.
… UNADJUSTED DATA
The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 298,692 in the week ending April 27, a decrease of -27,143 from the previous week. There were 333,476 initial claims in the comparable week in 2012.
If last year’s seasonal adjustment factor had been used on today’s raw number, seasonally adjusted claims would have come in at 332,000 (298,692 divided by .899, rounded).