Initial Unemployment Claims (050913): 323K SA; Prior Week Revised Up 3k; NSA Claims Down 12.5% From Same Week Last Year
- Bloomberg — 335,000 seasonally adjusted claims, up from 324,000 (before revision) last week.
- Reuters — couldn’t find anything (it was early)
- Business Insider email — 335,000
Seasonal adjustment factors:
- Week ended May 5, 2012 – 93.1
- Week ended May 4, 2013 — 92.3
- Week ended May 5, 2012 — 341,080
- Week ended April 27, 2013 (before revision) — 298,672
Raw claims will have to be about 309,000, or about a 3.5% increase over last week’s pre-revision raw claims, for the Bloomberg prediction to hold (309,000 divided by .923 is 335,000, rounded). If it’s much higher, that will be a troubling sign.
The report will be here at 8:30 a.m.
HERE IT IS (permanent link):
In the week ending May 4, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 323,000, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 327,000. The 4-week moving average was 336,750, a decrease of 6,250 from the previous week’s revised average of 343,000.
… UNADJUSTED DATA
The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 298,497 in the week ending May 4, a decrease of 2,638 from the previous week. There were 341,080 initial claims in the comparable week in 2012.
Raw claims were 12.5% below the same week a year ago.
So things seem to have stabilized at around 325,000 the AP’s old benchmark for unemployment claims triggering declines in the unemployment rate four years ago. Since then, the AP has raised that benchmark to 375,000 even though the covered workforce (i.e., those who can collect unemployment claims if they get laid off) has fallen from 133.1 million to 129.2 million. This is my way of saying that perhaps the economy is finally on the way to stopping the bleeding of excessive unemployment claims. We’ll see.