May 9, 2013

Initial Unemployment Claims (050913): 323K SA; Prior Week Revised Up 3k; NSA Claims Down 12.5% From Same Week Last Year

Filed under: Economy,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 7:30 am

Predictions:
- Bloomberg — 335,000 seasonally adjusted claims, up from 324,000 (before revision) last week.
- Reuters — couldn’t find anything (it was early)
- Business Insider email — 335,000

Seasonal adjustment factors:
- Week ended May 5, 2012 – 93.1
- Week ended May 4, 2013 — 92.3

Raw claims:
- Week ended May 5, 2012 — 341,080
- Week ended April 27, 2013 (before revision) — 298,672

Raw claims will have to be about 309,000, or about a 3.5% increase over last week’s pre-revision raw claims, for the Bloomberg prediction to hold (309,000 divided by .923 is 335,000, rounded). If it’s much higher, that will be a troubling sign.

The report will be here at 8:30 a.m.

HERE IT IS (permanent link):

In the week ending May 4, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 323,000, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 327,000. The 4-week moving average was 336,750, a decrease of 6,250 from the previous week’s revised average of 343,000.

… UNADJUSTED DATA

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 298,497 in the week ending May 4, a decrease of 2,638 from the previous week. There were 341,080 initial claims in the comparable week in 2012.

Raw claims were 12.5% below the same week a year ago.

So things seem to have stabilized at around 325,000 the AP’s old benchmark for unemployment claims triggering declines in the unemployment rate four years ago. Since then, the AP has raised that benchmark to 375,000 even though the covered workforce (i.e., those who can collect unemployment claims if they get laid off) has fallen from 133.1 million to 129.2 million. This is my way of saying that perhaps the economy is finally on the way to stopping the bleeding of excessive unemployment claims. We’ll see.

Quote of the Day: Rush on Obama, Hillary Clinton and Benghazi

RushOnHillaryOnBenghazi050803

Related:

  • From yesterday’s hearing, via the Washington Examiner (HT Hot Air) — “The YouTube video was a non-event in Libya”
  • CBS News“Official: We knew Benghazi was a terrorist attack ‘from the get-go’”

And please, let’s not forget how the Associated Press allowed the truth to appear ever so briefly (13 days after foreign outlets reported it) and then obscured it:

  • Oct, 10, 2012 — “AP Slaps Boring Headline on Story Regarding Major Admission by State Dept. on Benghazi Consulate Attack”
  • Oct. 11, 2012 — “AP Reports Still Fixate on ‘Anti-Islam Video,’ Leave Impression That There Were Pre-Attack Protests in Benghazi”

Thursday Off-Topic (Moderated) Open Thread (050913)

Filed under: Lucid Links — Tom @ 6:05 am

Rules are here. Possible comment fodder may follow later. Other topics are also fair game.

Positivity: Fan can’t believe Matt Kemp’s gesture (‘Life is so much bigger than baseball’)

Filed under: Positivity — Tom @ 5:50 am

From Los Angeles (HT Daryn Kagan):

Kemp hadn’t planned to hand his cap, his jersey and his cleats to an ill Dodgers fan, but then he just had to.

He had just made the final out in a city where his name is booed, his jersey is reviled, and his team had been swept.

His power had disappeared, his swing was spotty, and his season was a wreck.

Matt Kemp would have been excused for quickly disappearing through the dugout at San Francisco’s AT&T Park on Sunday night and forgetting all about an earlier promise to third base coach Tim Wallach.

“But that was the neat deal about it,” Wallach said. “He was standing there waiting for me.”

Kemp was waiting to cross the diamond to sign an autograph for a terminally ill Dodgers fan, waiting to summon the passion necessary to pass along the hope that he now found so precious.

Kemp didn’t know the kid’s name. Kemp didn’t know anybody was watching. When he reached the figure in the hooded blue sweatshirt sitting motionless in the front row, he thought the encounter would be quick and forgettable.

Then Kemp saw something. Maybe it was the kid’s lost stare. Maybe it was his painfully frozen limbs.

“I said hi to him, he just looked at me in kind of shock, and it almost got me,” Kemp said. “It almost got me.”

Oh, but it did get him. The moment stripped him of his self-pity, and then everything else started coming off.
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