- Business Insider — 345,000 seasonally adjusted initial claims.
- Reuters — 345,000
Seasonal adjustment factors:
- Week ended June 22, 2013 — 96.8
- Week ended June 23, 2012 — 97.2
- Week ended June 15, 2013 — 335,320 (before revisions)
- Week ended June 23, 2012 — 370,521
For the prediction of 345,000 to be accurate, raw claims will need to be 334,000 (334K divided by .968 is 345K, rounded). That seems like where things should come in if they’re not getting any better or worse.
The report will be here at 8:30 a.m.
HERE IT IS (permanent link):
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA
In the week ending June 22, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 346,000, a decrease of 9,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 355,000. The 4-week moving average was 345,750, a decrease of 2,750 from the previous week’s revised average of 348,500.
The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 334,978 in the week ending June 22, a decrease of 1,589 from the previous week. There were 370,521 initial claims in the comparable week in 2012.
After next week’s almost inevitable upward revision, this week’s raw claims will be either virtually identical to or greater than last week’s.
Not much else to say. Today’s news indicates a job market that’s continuing to meander in mediocrity.