Initial Unemployment Claims (070313): 343K, Down From Revised 348K Last Week; NSA Claims Down Almost 10% From Same Week Last Year
Predictions were for 345K seasonally adjusted claims.
Here the DOL annuncement:
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA
In the week ending June 29, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 343,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 348,000. The 4-week moving average was 345,500, a decrease of 750 from the previous week’s revised average of 346,250.
… UNADJUSTED DATA
The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 333,920 in the week ending June 29, a decrease of 2,595 from the previous week. There were 369,826 initial claims in the comparable week in 2012.
This year’s seasonal adjustment factor of 97.4 is a bit lower than last year’s factor (98.8) for the same week. If last year’s factor had been used on this year’s raw claims, seasonally adjusted claims would have been 5,000 lower (333,920 divided by .988) is 338K, rounded).
This report was neutral. Especially after building in a typical 2k-3k rise after revisions, there’s no reason to believe things are getting much better or worse.