July 5, 2013

Cavuto on ObamaCare: ‘Champions of ObamaCare hid the real costs’

Since a frequent tipster informed me of an epic rant by Fox News’s Neil Cavuto on Monday, I’ve been waiting for it to appear on YouTube.

It hasn’t, so I’m going to transcribe it and link readers to the Fox News video. Keep in mind that Cavuto said all of this before the Obama administration’s cynical, politically opportunistic, and arguably illegal (as if that matters any more) announcement that it would delay imposing the employer mandate for a year until January 1, 2015, while forcing everyone to have health insurance or pay a fine starting six months from now:

We are paying more for health insurance when they said we would be paying less.

We are signing up fewer for the health care law when they said we would be signing up more.

The uninsured who still don’t want it.

The low-wage workers who still can’t afford it.

The doctors who are sick of being doctors because of it.

The fit who are having fits because they still will end up paying more even if they are fit.

The full-time workers made part-time workers because their bosses couldn’t afford their coverage.

The part-time workers who became former workers because they couldn’t afford losing that coverage.

The specialists who say their specialty suddenly isn’t so special.

The surgeons bailing out of their profession because it’s just not worth the hassle.

Oh yeah, and everybody else, who just can’t seem to afford the hassle.

A Wall Street Journal study out today that details premiums doubling, even tripling, and soon — even for those practicing preventive behavior, prevented from getting any break for that behavior.

Who knew in this remake of healthcare (that) slugs would rule, and the fit would drool?

The government knew. That’s who knew.

The votes touting who not only knew it, but hid from all of us the very real costs of it.

Nancy Pelosi was no dummy. She HAD read the bill. She DID know what was inside that bill — just like Max Baucus did, just like Harry Reid did.

But the fix was already in, and those soaring premiums are already on.

But then again, these champions of healthcare chose their words very carefully at the time, didn’t they?

After all, President Obama himself always said that you could keep your own doctor. What he did not say, was that you would end up paying through the nose for the privilege.

And the great healtcare system we once enjoyed, the one we upended for the 90 percent of us who were happy to cover the 10 percent who apparently still are not happy — well, stick a syringe in it. It is gone.

But first, bend over. Because this is gonna hurt.

Well, the message from the administration’s employer mandate delay may be, could be, and should be, “Maybe the health system we had, the one which needs serious reform but in a free-market direction, isn’t gone — not if those opposed to it summon the courage to save it and fix it.”

June Employment Situation Summary (070513); 195K SA Jobs Added; Unemployment Rate Stays at 7.6% (See Updates; FT Employment Has Ground to a Halt)

Filed under: Economy,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 7:01 am

Predictions:

  • Associated Press — “Economists forecast that the June jobs report will show employers added 165,000 jobs. … The unemployment rate is expected to remain 7.6 percent.”
  • Bloomberg — “The U.S. unemployment rate probably fell to 7.5 percent in June, matching April’s four-year low and down from 7.6 percent in May, according to the median of 82 economists’ estimates in a Bloomberg survey before the Labor Department report today. Payrolls grew by 165,000 workers, after rising 175,000 in May, the median of 70 projections shows.”
  • Reuters — Unemployment 7.5%, and 165,000 jobs. Update, 7:25 a.m.: From a separate Reuters report: “Economists said there was a chance the labor force could shrink, leading to a bigger-than-forecast drop in the jobless rate, given that the number of people entering the labor force had gone up in each of the previous two months.”

Not seasonally adjusted numbers

The true indicator of job-market strength will be how many jobs were actually added in overall and in the private sector. Here’s the January-June history since 2000:

NSAandSAjobs2000thruJune2013

Given the history of raw (i.e., not seasonally adjusted) jobs added in previous Junes going back to 2000, a legitimate claim that we might finally be in a recovery would require that 650,000 overall jobs and 1.05 million private-sector jobs were actually added in June, regardless of what the seasonally adjusted numbers are, especially to make up for a mediocre March through May. (Even that’s grading on a curve, because in the good years of 2004-2007, the unemployment rate and especially the under-employment rate was much lower; so there are many more people who could be working but aren’t because of economic conditions.)

Even if those numbers are achieved, we still need to look into how many of them are full-time permanent jobs, jobs at temporary help services, and part-time.

To achieve the predicted 175K seasonally adjusted jobs, it looks like raw adds will only need to be about 420K-450K. If so, those numbers would significantly trail the mid-2000s.

The report will be here at 8:30 a.m.

HERE IT IS (permanent link to full HTML report):

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 195,000 in June, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 7.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment rose in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, retail trade, health care, and financial activities.

Household Survey Data

The number of unemployed persons, at 11.8 million, and the unemployment rate, at 7.6 percent, were unchanged in June. Both measures have shown little change since February.

… The civilian labor force participation rate, at 63.5 percent, and the employment-population ratio, at 58.7 percent, changed little in June. Over the year, the labor force participation rate is down by 0.3 percentage point.

The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) increased by 322,000 to 8.2 million in June.

Among the marginally attached, there were 1.0 million discouraged workers in June, an increase of 206,000 from a year earlier.

Establishment Survey Data

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 195,000 in June, in line with the average monthly gain of 182,000 over the prior 12 months. In June, job growth occurred in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, retail trade, health care, and financial activities.

Employment in professional and business services rose by 53,000 in June. Job gains occurred in management and technical consulting services (+8,000) and in computer systems design and related services (+7,000). Employment continued to trend up in temporary help services (+10,000). Over the past year, professional and business services has added 624,000 jobs.

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for April was revised from +149,000 to +199,000, and the change for May was revised from +175,000 to +195,000. With these revisions, employment gains in April and May combined were 70,000 higher than previously reported.

People who want to force “the new normal” on us are going to think this report is okay. Although it’s better than expected (pending a deeper data dive; Update: The data dive has plenty of really bad news — see updates below), it’s not where it should be, especially after taking a look at the raw numbers:

NSAandSAjobs2010thruJune2013

Team Obama got a bit of a break on the overall seasonally adjusted number. Based on the past few years, 422,000 raw job adds “should” have translated to about 160,000-175,000 seasonally adjusted jobs instead of the 195,000 reported.

Team Obama got a bigger break on the seasonally adjusted private-sector number. Based on the past few years, 856,000 raw job adds “should” have translated to about 130,000-150,000 seasonally adjusted jobs instead of the 202,000 reported.

As seen above, this year’s raw numbers for June both overall and in the private sector — the real benchmarks for progress — came in halfway between 2011 and 2012. Does anyone remember either of those years being particularly impressive? Neither do I.

____________________________________

UPDATE: The Household Survey says that part-time workers increased by 360,000, while full-timers decreased by 240,000. That’s enough to make you wonder if the administration was tipped to the report’s contents early this week and decided to drop ObamaCare’s employer mandate before the howls got too loud.

It also says that in the past 12 months, the number of full-time workers has increased by less than 1.4 million. In the past three months? Only 95,000. Update: In 2013 so far? 130,000 (not shown at link), an average of 22,000 per month. Full-time employment has essentially ground to a halt. At 116.0 million, it is 5.6 million below its pre-recession peak of 121.6 million in December 2007.

UPDATE 2: The BLS report notes that “Over the past year, professional and business services has added 624,000 jobs.” As seen here, 167,000 — 27% of them — have been temps.

UPDATE 3: Yikes — The fully-loaded unemployment rate shot up from 13.8% to 14.3% (HT Zero Hedge).

UPDATE 4: Seriously? Of the 2.293 million private-sector jobs added per the establishment survey during the past 12 months, 401,000 (17.5%) of them have been at “Food and Drinking Places” — a segment that is only about 7.5% of all employment. Update: This category and temps, which were about 9.3% of the workforce a year ago, make up almost 25% of jobs added in the past year. Update: To be clear, all jobs providing legitimate services are noble. The point is that the jobs arising in this “new normal” economy aren’t the high-paying, high-tech jobs the administration tries to pretend its grandly designed economy will create.

Friday Off-Topic (Moderated) Open Thread (070513)

Filed under: Lucid Links — Tom @ 6:05 am

Rules are here. Possible comment fodder may follow later. Other topics are also fair game.

Positivity: Group celebrates first ordinations since reunion with Rome

Filed under: Life-Based News,Positivity — Tom @ 6:00 am

From Rome:

Jun 29, 2013 / 06:01 am

For the first time since coming into clear union with the Pope, the religious institute the Sons of the Most Holy Redeemer celebrated the priestly ordination of two of its members on June 22.

Father Magdala Maria and Father Yousef Marie were ordained alongside Fr. Massimo Botta of the Priestly Fraternity of Saint Peter by Archbishop Guido Pozzo, head of the Office of Papal Charities, in Rome.

Both orders are dedicated to celebrating the liturgy in the extraordinary form of the Roman Rite – as was done prior to the reforms of the Second Vatican Council.

The Sons of the Most Holy Redeemer, also called the Transalpine Redemptorists, were founded in 1987 and were associated with the Society of St. Pius X.

After Benedict XVI issued a document affirming the value of the extraordinary form, also called the traditional Latin Mass, the Transalpine Redemptorists responded by petitioning the Vatican to regularize their situation.

On June 26, 2008, their petition was granted and they were no longer associated with the schismatic Society of St. Pius X. The group now enjoys “undisputed and peaceful possession of Communion with the Holy See.”

Go here for the rest of the story.