July 25, 2013

Illinois Outshines Ohio in Job Growth (UPDATE: And Columbus Has the Vast Majority of Ohio’s)

Filed under: Economy,Ohio Economy,Ohio Politics,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 5:23 pm

This post expands on yesterday’s column on Midwestern job growth in June and during the past 12 months and how Governor Kasich’s stubborn positions on Medicaid expansion and “fracking” taxation continue to create the kind of uncertainty which is holding back economic growth and job creation in the Buckeye State.

That column contained the following table:

StateNSAemploymentGrowthJune2012to2013

One can explain away the fact that Indiana, Michigan and Wisconsin are outperforming Ohio in job growth, simply because Republicans Mike Pence (and predecessor Mitch Daniels), Rick Snyder (who regained his equilibrium earlier this year by getting behind the Wolverine State’s right to work law), and Scott Walker have been unfortunately (for us, not for them) doing a better day-to-day job in their states than our governor is doing in his. It also probably helps Indiana that it passed right to work early last year, and it “helps” Michigan that it had a bigger hole out of which to emerge thanks to eight awful years of Jennifer Granholm.

Kentucky’s position above Ohio a bit hard to handle, until one remembers that Bluegrass State Democrats generally don’t have the moonbat streak found in most other states, and that Republicans control the state’s Senate.

West Virginia is getting killed by the war on coal. Pennsylvania is to a lesser extent, and Republican Bob Corbett is not doing a particularly good job in a state which is perilously close to becoming incurably blue.

But that leaves Illinois.

Illi-flippin-nois? The state enacted massive tax increases in early 2011 which have hurt its economy and employment growth. Its credit rating is the worst in the nation.

Despite all of that, Illinois has outperformed Ohio in job creation in the past 12 months — by a lot:

OHvsILempGrowthJune2012toJune2013

If this comparison isn’t a signal that Team Kasich needs to reevaluate what it’s doing and how it’s doing it from top to bottom, I don’t know what is.

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UPDATE: In something I didn’t expect (maybe it’s typical and I just don’t know it), the metro area tables at the Bureau of Labor Statistics have been updated through June, even though the related Metro Area report isn’t due until next Tuesday.

That’s useful, because I can modify the above graph to segregate job growth in Columbus from the rest of the state.

This hurts:

CbusOHandILjobGrowth12most0613

Is there anybody out there who still thinks that Columbus isn’t getting almost all of the economic improvement in Ohio, while the rest of the Buckeye State is being left virtually high and dry?

I guess this also explains why so many people inside and just outside of the I-270 beltway seem to think things are just fine.

UPDATE 2: For those who want the underlying numbers:

CbusAndRestOfOHjobGrowth12mos2013

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7 Comments

  1. On the flip side, Illinois (9.2% unemployment, seasonally adjusted), Michigan (8.7% unemployment), Indiana (8.4% unemployment), and Kentucky (8.4% unemployment) would kill to have Ohio’s 7.2% unemployment. In essence – they have a lot further to go than Ohio.

    The bad news, at least for Ohio – Wisconsin is managing a near-best-in-class job growth rate with a significantly-lower-than-average unemployment rate (6.8%).

    Comment by steveegg — July 26, 2013 @ 8:43 am

  2. #1, all true.

    One item requiring a closer look is whether these other states have growing or contracting labor forces. OH’s has contracted or barely grown — everywhere but Cbus.

    Wisconsin actually had pretty weak job growth until recently, which I ascribe to businesses holding off on decisions until seeing if Walker prevailed in his recall, and seeing if leftist intimidators would finally settle down from seemingly threatening and sabotaging every form of job growth they could (including some mining initiatives up in Mesabi). Hopefully, they have.

    Comment by Tom — July 26, 2013 @ 8:49 am

  3. Can’t honestly say that has been the case. The QCEW year-over-year private gains have been remarkably consistent since October 2010 in the 24K-41K (or 1.0%-1.8%) range. Perhaps not so coincidentally, October 2010 was when it became apparent Scott Walker would be the next governor.

    Comment by steveegg — July 26, 2013 @ 9:28 am

  4. Maybe I missed some upward revisions; before those revisions, WI had some difficult periods.

    Just went back; looks like there’s been a lot of smoothing and slow, steady rising. But in any event, 24K-41K is not that impressive (better than OH’s, of course). WI is still 70K below its pre-recession peak, and is about 60% back from its trough.

    It beats any Dem alternative, but I don’t think it’s something on which to base a reelect campaign unless it gets the rest of the way back in the next 12 mos.

    Comment by Tom — July 26, 2013 @ 10:20 am

  5. That massive revisions (major ups in 2010, major downs in 2011/2012 in the last set of benchmarking on both the CES and LAUS) is why I don’t trust the BLS numbers regarding Wisconsin half as far as I can throw them with my off-arm.

    Comment by steveegg — July 26, 2013 @ 1:07 pm

  6. [...] Outshines Ohio in Job Growth (UPDATE: And Columbus Has the Vast Majority of Ohio’s) July 26, 2013 bizzyblog.com BizzyBlog No comments Illinois Outshines Ohio in Job Growth (UPDATE: And Columbus [...]

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