Initial Unemployment Claims (080813): 333K, Up From Last Week’s 328K; NSA Claims Down 16% From Same Week Last Year
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA
In the week ending August 3, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 333,000, an increase of 5,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 328,000. The 4-week moving average was 335,500, a decrease of 6,250 from the previous week’s revised average of 341,750.
… UNADJUSTED DATA
The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 286,738 in the week ending August 3, an increase of 5,285 from the previous week. There were 320,219 initial claims in the comparable week in 2012.
Predictions were for 336K, which is about where they will be if next week’s upward revision is typical.
There was little difference in the year-over-year seasonal adjustment factors (87.0 last year, 86.2 this year).
It looks like this stat might be hanging around in the 330s for a while, which is better than what’s generally been seen in a long time — like about six years (claims made a move up into the 330s in October 2007, and basically never looked back as the recession which really began in June 2008 loomed. Conventional wisdom would dictate that this will mean that the unemployment rate is going to continue to go down. While it may, we still have the creation of part-time jobs with little full-time accompaniment making the improvements hard to swallow.
With a similar level of covered employment in 2006, weekly claims typically ranged between 285K and 315K.