- Bloomberg — a seasonally adjusted 335,000, up from 333,000 last week (which will itself more than likely be revised upward).
- Reuters — 335k
Seasonal adjustment factors:
- Week ended August 10, 2013 — 87.7
- Week ended August 11, 2012 — 86.6
Raw (i.e., not seasonally adjusted) claims:
- Week ended August 3, 2013 — 286,738 (before likely upward revision in today’s report)
- Week ended August 11, 2012 — 317,680
For today’s prediction to hold, raw claims will need to be 294,000 or lower (294K divided by .877 is 335K, rounded).
That should be doable. I would consider it a disappointment if the reading isn’t 330K or lower. Anything about that would mean raw claims exceeded last week (after last week gets revised up a bit).
The report will be here at 8:30.
HERE IT IS (Permanent Link):
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA
In the week ending August 10, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 320,000, a decrease of 15,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 335,000. The 4-week moving average was 332,000, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week’s revised average of 336,000.
The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 280,502 in the week ending August 10, a decrease of 8,142 from the previous week. There were 317,680 initial claims in the comparable week in 2012.
Raw claims came down a few points from a week ago, and about 12% from a year ago. The revision to last week was typical of the recent past.
Absent any surprises like states not having their data in, it’s hard to complain about the direction of this result. The lingering question is what kind of impact the now universally acknowledged (everywhere but the White House) move toward part-time work might be having on workers’ ability and desire to apply for benefits.