Team Obama had better hope that the people at Gallup are somehow screwing up bigtime (HT Breitbart) — because if they’re not, the unemployment rate is on its way up (data is through yesterday; Gallup’s link is apparently continuously updated):
Since the government’s Bureau of Labor Statistics bases its monthly report on the weekly pay period containing the 12th, there’s always a lag of 2-3 weeks between what they report and what’s really happening on the ground.
If the roughly 0.5-point distance between BLS and Gallup seen during the week containing July 12 stays the same, we can expect the BLS’s September 6 Employment Situation report to tell us that the unemployment rate shot up to about 7.9% (a half-point below Gallup’s average during the week containing August 12 of 8.4%). And if Gallup is correctly detecting a deeply negative trend, it will be going up even more after that.
As I noted above, the Obama administration had better hope that Gallup, which claims to know “more about the attitudes and behaviors of the world’s constituents, employees, and customers than any other organization,” is somehow screwing up. I doubt they are.