August 23, 2013

Poof! What New Home Sales Recovery?

Filed under: Economy,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 10:10 am

From the Census Bureau:

NEW RESIDENTIAL SALES IN JULY 2013

Sales of new single-family houses in July 2013 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 394,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.

This is 13.4 percent (±14.5%)* below the revised June rate of 455,000, but is 6.8 percent (±18.6%)* above the July 2012 estimate of 369,000.

June was revised downward hugely — from 497,000 to 455,000. So July’s 394,000 is over 20% below where we thought we were in June.

The tables haven’t been updated yet. I’ll have more when they are.

UPDATE: This is just devastating (seasonally adjusted annual rates) –

HomeSalesChangesJuneToJuly2013

Not only was July awful and the worst seasonally adjusted result in nine months, previous months were revised down by a total of 69,000 units.

Here are the actual monthly sales after revisions (not seasonally adjusted):

NewHomeSalesNSAthruJuly2013

July’s actual is less than February, one of the worst months of the year for trying to sell new homes, and 19% lower than June.

So much for that “housing leads the way in the recovery” meme.

Can’t wait to see how the press handles this.

_________________________________

UPDATE: Zero Hedge notes the expectations miss —

And so the housing “recovery” comes to a screeching halt, which is not surprising as there never was a recovery to begin with. Moments ago cheerleaders of the second housing bubble were shocked to learn that in July a tiny 35K new houses were sold (with just 3K sold in the Northeast, and just 19K in the otherwise strong South), of which 13K houses were not even started. This translated into a puny 394K seasonally adjusted annualized sales, missing expectations of 487K by nearly a record 100K.

… Finally, to all the clueless chatterboxes who say soaring mortgage rates don’t matter, newsflash: they do.

But in a fundamentally sound economy, a one-point rise in mortgage rates wouldn’t matter much. The new-home market roared back in the mid-1980s despite double-digit mortgage rates which are more than twice the level we’re seeing now.

Also noted: “Median Home (Sale) Price At 6 Month Low.”

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5 Comments

  1. [...] annual rate of 394,000, miles below the expected 487,000 and 12% below June’s 455,000, which was itself revised down from 497,000. After the jump, I’ll reveal what supposedly leading personal finance site [...]

    Pingback by BizzyBlog — August 23, 2013 @ 11:56 am

  2. [...] On Friday, the Census Bureau reported that new-home sales dropped over 20% in July to an annual rate of [...]

    Pingback by BizzyBlog — August 26, 2013 @ 4:32 pm

  3. [...] On Friday, the Census Bureau reported that new-home sales dropped over 20% in July to an annual rate of [...]

    Pingback by Yet Another ‘Unexpectedly’ Sighting; Durable Goods Orders Fell 7.3% in July | PromVomit.com — August 26, 2013 @ 5:21 pm

  4. [...] — Signs of “resilience” (sarcasm on for the rest of this note) include a 20% decline in seasonally adjusted new home sales from June to July, before June itself was revised down by [...]

    Pingback by BizzyBlog — August 28, 2013 @ 8:45 pm

  5. [...] contrary news concerns housing. Last week’s new home sales report, in addition to telling us that July was awful, revised April, May, and June down by 69,000 [...]

    Pingback by BizzyBlog — August 29, 2013 @ 8:17 am

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