Note: Comments on this report will come after I’m through with my initial look at GDP.
Seasonal Adjusted Factors:
- Week ended August 24, 2013 — 83.9
- Week ended August 25, 2012 — 83.4
- Week ended August 17, 2013 — 279,026 (before revision)
- Week ended August 25, 2012 — 312,542
For the 330K prediction to hold, raw claims will have to be 277K or lower (277K divided by .839 is 330K, rounded).
That seems like a prediction which will hold.
We’ll see here at 8:30.
HERE IT IS (permanent link):
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA
In the week ending August 24, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 331,000, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 337,000. The 4-week moving average was 331,250, an increase of 750 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 330,500.
… UNADJUSTED DATA
The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 277,359 in the week ending August 24, a decrease of 2,959 from the previous week. There were 312,542 initial claims in the comparable week in 2012.
This is what was expected. Last week was only revised up by 1K, which is smaller than usual. As Zero Hedge noted, “claims have been in a generally tight range now between 320k and 350k for the entire year.”