September 3, 2013

Columbus vs. the Rest of Ohio Update (See Charts at End of Post)

Filed under: Economy,Ohio Economy,Ohio Politics,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 8:03 pm

Looking at not seasonally adjusted data during the past 12 and 24 months, it’s more than obvious that Metro Columbus has done well during John Kasich’s gubernatorial term, while the vast majority of the rest of the state has not:


First, let’s look at the data set which is less damning, namely that from the federal government’s Establishment Survey of employers (first and third sections in the table above).

Metro Columbus, which has about 17 percent of all statewide employment (and rising), has seen percentage job growth of roughly double of that seen in the rest of the state (5.20 percent during past 24 months in Columbus vs. 2.88 percent elsewhere), and a bit more than double the rate seen in the 12 other Buckeye State metro areas the government tracks. Even Columbus has seen a bit of a slowdown during the past 12 months compared to the previous 12.

But it’s the more inclusive Household Survey’s results (second and fourth sections in the table) which show how Columbus is holding its own, though less impressively, while the rest of the state suffers. The Household Survey picks up self-employment and contract employment the Establishment Survey of payrolls does not. The Household Survey also tells us what is happening to the total labor force, which includes those working and those who are looking for work (but not workforce dropouts or discouraged workers).

Columbus’s labor force has grown in each of the past two years. The rest of Ohio’s labor force shrank seriously during the 12 months ended in July 2012, and has barely grown during the past 12 months. With the exception of Canton-Massillon (detail not presented here), every other major metro area in the state has seen its workforce contract during the past two years. All of Ohio except Columbus has seen a shrinkage of over 66,000.

Household Survey employment growth in Columbus during the past two years has been almost 3 percent. In the rest of the state, it has been 0.47 percent, only one-sixth of that. Only Akron and Toledo at +1.71 percent and +1.69 percent, respectively (not detailed here) have seen meaningful Household Survey employment growth in the past two years.

In the past 12 months, over 97 percent of Ohio’s Household Survey job additions have occurred in Columbus. Other metro areas have picked up an unimpressive 10,000 jobs. That gain has been almost entirely offset by jobs lost in non-metro areas, leaving the rest of the state with almost invisible employment growth of +0.01 percent.

All of this is summarized in the two ugly charts (if you don’t live or work in Metro Columbus) below:


This is not an acceptable situation, but apparently the folks running state government in Columbus don’t mind it. Otherwise, they’d be doing something about it. From all appearances, they’re not.

I guess as long as things are okay within and around the I-270 Beltway, what’s happening in the rest of the state doesn’t matter.

What else are we to conclude?

NewsBusted (082913)

Filed under: NewsBusted — Tom @ 3:25 pm

Coming out on Thursday instead of the regular Tuesday, this one caught me by surprise, so it’s going up late.

Here goes:

– Bob Filner Resigns
– Al Jazeera America
– Speaker Boehner
– Aaron Hernandez
– Tim Tebow
– Obamacare
– Paul Bunyan
– NSA Spies on UN
– Bradley Manning Sex Change
– Wentworth Miller

Best Line: “WikiLeaks whistleblower Bradley Manning has announed he will get a sex change to become a woman. After the announcement, Manning immediately got a dirty text from Anthony Weiner.”

Rangel Calls Obama-Syria Situation ‘Embarrassing’; Press, Other Than Politico, Ignores

Monday morning, 22-term Democratic Congressman Charlie Rangel of New York, as reported by Tal Kopan at the Politico, said that President Barack Obama’s drawing of a “red line” on Syria is “embarrassing,” and that he is against “putting our kids in harm’s way to solve an international problem.”

Rangel is the third most-senior House member of either party. If a senior Republican congressperson similarly criticized opposed a Republican or conservative president in a matter such as this, there would be widespread establishment press coverage. In this case, there’s very little. This is not unusual for stories detrimental to Democratic Party interests, as the rest of the establishment press all too often seems content to say, “Oh, that was already in the Politico, so we don’t have to cover it.”


ISM Manufacturing: 55.7% in August, Up From 55.4% in July

Filed under: Economy — Tom @ 10:14 am

From the Institute for Supply Management:

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in August for the third consecutive month, and the overall economy grew for the 51st consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.

The PMI™ registered 55.7 percent, an increase of 0.3 percentage point from July’s reading of 55.4 percent. August’s PMI™ reading, the highest of the year, indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector for the third consecutive month. The New Orders Index increased in August by 4.9 percentage points to 63.2 percent, and the Production Index decreased by 2.6 percentage points to 62.4 percent. The Employment Index registered 53.3 percent, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points compared to July’s reading of 54.4 percent. The Prices Index registered 54 percent, increasing 5 percentage points from July, indicating that overall raw materials prices increased when compared to last month. Comments from the panel range from slow to improving business conditions depending upon the industry.

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 15 are reporting growth in August …

Two of the three key readings were fine, as noted above. Backlog of Orders stayed stuck in contraction at 46.5%, up from 45.0% in July.

My take, especially since this is the second month of backlogs contracting? Manufacturers are living month to month — for now, rather well. But they’re reluctant to make long-lived commitments. This means, though I hope it’s not the case, that the index could head south very quickly if the headwinds get stronger.


UPDATE: Should also note that a lot of the comments are not consistent with the reported briskly expanding index.

Trumka Admits Unions Involved in Writing Obamacare; Press Yawns

In a Thursday morning speech, AFL-CIO head Richard Trumka told of how surprised how he was, in the words of Time’s Alex Rogers at it Swampland blog, “that employers have reduced workers’ hours below 30-a-week to avoid an employer penalty scheduled to go into effect in 2015.”

Here’s another “surprise” from Rogers’ report, at least for those who think that lawmakers sit alone and draw up 2,000-page pieces of legislation on their own (except when the media relays claims by the left that evil industries write laws which evil Republican congressmen simply rubber-stamp them): Trumka admitted organized labor’s direct involvement in in writing Obamacare. In other words, labor created the mess it is now denouncing (bolds are mine throughout this post):


Tuesday Off-Topic (Moderated) Open Thread (090313)

Filed under: Lucid Links — Tom @ 6:05 am

This open thread will stay at or near the top today. Rules are here. Possible comment fodder follows. Other topics are also fair game.

If you are on the front page, click “more” to see today’s items (updated sporadically; items time-stamped 6:05 a.m., if any, were posted earlier and held).

Positivity: Ashford woman Clair Huntley is ‘medical miracle’ after horrific horse-riding accident

Filed under: Positivity — Tom @ 6:00 am

From Ashford, UK:

Aug. 31, 2013

A woman who suffered a horrific head injury after falling from her horse has thanked the good samaritan who stopped to help save her life.

Clair Huntley, from Singleton, Ashford, was out riding in Great Chart when a dog frightened her horse exactly a year ago tomorrow.

The 39-year-old, of Langley Drive, was thrown from the horse and her instructor’s animal stood on her head – leaving her with multiple head injuries.

Mrs Huntley, who has been riding since she was four, was left lying in the road.