- ISM Manufacturing — 55.7% in August, up slightly from 55.4% in July.
- ISM Non Manufacturing – a strong 58.6% in August, up from 56.0% in July.
- Car Sales — A very strong month, with all of the big six companies showing double-digit gains. Detroit’s Big 3 were in the low teens, while the three biggest Japanese companies were all well above 20%. Toyota outsold Ford.
- ADP Private Sector Payrolls — 176,000 jobs added in August.
Not seasonally adjusted data: Readers here know that the raw (i.e., not seasonally adjusted) data tells the real story and that seasonally adjusted figures sometimes don’t seem to adequately reflect the underlying reality.
Here are the NSA and SA number for June-August during the past 13 years:
For August to have been a good month, the economy needs to have added 400,000 total nonfarm jobs and 225,000 in the private sector. They both have to come in better than the past few years, simply because the economy during the past few years hasn’t impressed anyone without partisan blinders who has been paying attention.
Also lurking in the background is how the Gallup employment polls are showing the unemployment rate trending up.
Obviously, another major factor to watch will be the part-time vs. full-time breakout in the Household Survey.
The report will be here at 8:30.
HERE IT IS (full HTML version): Once again, the number of jobs added is less than impressive (after prior-month writedowns), while the official unemployment rate comes down –
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 169,000 in August, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 7.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment rose in retail trade and health care but declined in information.
Household Survey Data
Both the number of unemployed persons, at 11.3 million, and the unemployment rate, at 7.3 percent, changed little in August. The jobless rate is down from 8.1 percent a year ago.
… In August, the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was about unchanged at 4.3 million.
… The civilian labor force participation rate edged down to 63.2 percent in August.
… Establishment Survey Data
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 169,000 in August, about in line with the average monthly gain of 184,000 over the prior 12 months. In August, job growth occurred in retail trade and health care, while employment in information declined. Employment continued to trend up in food services and drinking places, professional and business services, and wholesale trade.
… Employment in temporary help services changed little in August.
… Within leisure and hospitality, employment in food services and drinking places continued to trend up in August (+21,000). Over the year, food services and drinking places has added 354,000 jobs.
… The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 0.1 hour in August to 34.5 hours.
… The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for June was revised from +188,000 to +172,000, and the change for July was revised from +162,000 to +104,000. With these revisions, employment gains in June and July combined were 74,000 less than previously reported.
The raw job adds were 378,000 overal (vs. the needed 400,000 above) and 164,000 in the private sector (vs. 225,000 needed above).
So in August’s first estimate, there were 95,000 more people on employer payrolls (169,000 added less 74,000 in downward revisions) than there were in July, while the unemployment rate went down ONLY because the labor force shrunk by 312,000. Employment per the Household Survey fell by 115,000.
This is a bad news report indicating continued job-market malaise.
UPDATE 1: “Employment in temporary help services changed little in August”? It was up by 13,100, or about 8% of the total adds. UPATE 1A: Seasonally adjusted temp employment is up by 181,000 in the past year, which is 8.2% of the 2.206 million jobs added. The sector is only about 2% of overall employment.
UPDATE 2: The labor force participation rate carnage is across the board — For whites (seasonally adjusted), it dropped from 63.7% in July to 63.4% in August. For blacks, it went from 61.4% to 60.8%, with black men over 20 year going from 67.6% to 66.6%.
UPDATE 3: There was some relief on the full-time vs. part-time front, but not the kind you’d like to see. The Household Survey says that 118,000 full-time jobs were added, while 233,000 part-time jobs were lost, netting out to the over 115K loss noted earlier.
UPDATE 4: Though the average work week went up overall, it dropped from 31.5 hours to 31.4 in retail.
UPDATE 5: “Not it labor force” increased by over 500K to 90.47 million. This figure is just shy of 10 million higher than it was when Barack Obama became president in January 2009.